Post-Election Thoughts: Upsets, Runoffs, and a Few Political Beatdowns

Alright, it’s time for some post-election analysis.

You’ve probably already seen plenty of national coverage about the big races. That’s not really my lane. My niche has always been the local stuff, and this election cycle gave us a few surprises worth talking about.

Let’s start with the races people actually pay attention to before we get to the judicial races.

And yes, I know, the judicial races are usually painfully boring. Most of the candidates have the personality of a manila folder. But don’t skip them. Some of the most interesting political developments in this election came out of those contests.

The Big Story: Voters Are Mad

If there’s one theme that jumps out from this election, it’s the anti-incumbent mood that seems to be floating around El Paso County right now.

Let’s start with the biggest upsets.

No one, and I mean no one, expected two sitting Democratic members of Commissioners Court to lose to challengers who had never run for office before.

Commissioner David Stout has always won his races, but his margins are usually the kind that make campaign consultants chew their fingernails down to the bone. He’s always managed to pull it out in the end.

Not this time.

His opponent, Miguel Teran, didn’t really have a clearly defined message for most of the campaign. But toward the end, he finally locked in on two themes that resonated with voters: property taxes and Stout’s travel.

That combination turned out to be enough.

Then there’s Sergio Coronado.

Wow.

Just… wow.

Coronado managed to lose to a candidate who, by any objective measure, ran one of the most invisible campaigns imaginable. No real experience. No policy platform. No clear vision. No discernible skill set related to running county government.

And most impressively, almost no public exposure.

From a campaign standpoint, that usually means one thing: the incumbent didn’t take the race seriously enough.

I don’t live on that side of town, so I can’t speak to the day-to-day campaign dynamics there. But from the outside looking in, this feels like a classic case of an incumbent assuming the race was in the bag.

There’s a lesson here that I repeat all the time.

It’s not enough to give voters a reason to vote for you.

You also have to give them a reason not to vote for the other candidate.

If you don’t define your opponent, voters will do it themselves. And sometimes they’ll decide the unknown option is better than the familiar one.

The bottom line is that these two losses dramatically change the makeup and tone of Commissioners Court. I honestly can’t remember the last time two incumbents were knocked off in the same cycle.

That alone makes this election a pretty big deal.

Adding another wrinkle is that the two commissioners-elect are not particularly well known inside the Democratic Party.

Teran has a bit more visibility than his colleague-elect Griego, but there are definitely people within the party quietly wondering whether she’s going to turn out to be a Dori Fenenbock-style figure. In other words, a Democrat in Name Only.

We’ll find out soon enough.

The Runoff Problem for Incumbents

The anti-incumbent mood doesn’t stop with Commissioners Court.

Four sitting Justices of the Peace are now headed into runoff elections.

That is rarely a good sign.

If you’re an incumbent heading into a runoff, it means a majority of the voters already chose someone else. Your job now is to convince people who just voted against you to suddenly change their mind.

That’s a tough assignment.

JP Precinct 2: Haggerty vs Saiz

Judge Haggerty is facing Christie Saiz in the runoff in Precinct 2.

He’s been here before, so this isn’t unfamiliar territory. But the numbers this time are a little more concerning. He barely scraped past 40 percent of the vote.

Saiz is a skilled debater and a disciplined candidate. She hasn’t had the money to go toe-to-toe with Haggerty during the primary.

But runoffs are different.

The electorate is smaller and more predictable. That means money becomes less of a structural advantage. And now that it’s a one-on-one race, it’s very possible that some financial support starts flowing her way.

This one could get interesting.

JP Precinct 6: Lujan’s Strong Position

Judge Ruben Lujan is in a much more comfortable position.

He finished in the mid-40s and is heading into the runoff against an opponent whose base appears to be largely confined to the Clint area.

Lujan has the advantage of name recognition and experience. Realistically, he probably just needs a couple of mailers reminding voters of that fact.

He’s the only incumbent I’d put money on surviving reelection.

JP Precinct 3: Serna in Trouble

Judge Nina Serna is facing former Judge Rosalie Dominguez.

Serna is in a difficult position because she’s both the incumbent and the second-place finisher heading into the runoff. She struggled to break 30 percent of the vote.

That’s a very deep hole.

For Serna to pull this off, a lot of things would have to go exactly right. And she’s running against someone the community has already elected before.

That’s a tough combination.

JP Precinct 5: Najera’s Numbers

Then there’s Judge Lucilla Najera.

Of all the incumbents headed into runoffs, she performed the worst.

She enters the runoff with less than 25 percent of the vote and is only about half a percentage point ahead of former El Paso County Democratic Party Chair Dora Oaxaca Rivera.

The real number to focus on is this: more than 75 percent of voters chose someone else.

That is a political alarm bell that can be heard from space.

Najera has also been dealing with several controversies during her tenure, with at least one major issue still potentially brewing.

When you look at the precinct results, the situation looks even worse.

She did not win a majority in a single precinct.

Not one.

In her strongest precinct, the one she actually lives in, she struggled to reach 30 percent.

When seven out of ten voters in your own neighborhood choose someone else, the political writing is usually on the wall.

SIDEBAR: There is one other thing that is noteworthy about this race. 

Eddie Holguin and Lily Limón. 

Their candidate was Jesus Olivas. They sent out a text from Limón - and another from their go-to, former Mayor Oscar Leeser on behalf of their candidate. He came in a distant 4th place. 

Just thought that was noteworthy. 

Why Judicial Races Matter

Some people tune out judicial races.

You shouldn’t.

Just ask the El Paso Republican Party.

Those geniuses currently have a former disgraced Democratic judge sitting in a runoff for their congressional nomination against Veronica Escobar.

Sweet Baby Jesus, please let those Republicans nominate him.

I cannot wait to get that man into a public forum and start asking questions.

And for the record, I’m going to take a moment to remind all the old-school Democratic establishment types that I warned you about this guy years ago.

You elected him anyway.

Just like I warned you about disgraced anti-immigrant Celia Cruz wannabe Marlene Gonzalez. She was so cruel toward immigrant children in her courtroom that lawyers representing the Catholic Church had to take legal action to keep her from hearing cases involving unaccompanied minors.

If she ever runs again, I will personally shame every self-respecting Democrat who supports her.

Or allows her sister Mayte to run their campaigns.

And yes, I’ve been warning people about Lucilla Najera too.

The Judicial Beatdowns

There were also some pretty decisive victories in the judicial races.

Chris Anchondo had a massive fundraising advantage, and the result was predictable. He cleared 60 percent of the vote in a primary, which is about as dominant as it gets.

But the biggest political beatdown of the night belonged to Amanda Enriquez.

She absolutely steamrolled Alex Cuellar in the race for the 171st District Court, winning with more than 67 percent of the vote.

Zas.

She pushed the guy off the swings and stole his lunch money.

That’s not just a loss. That’s humiliation.

Cuellar went full scorched-earth toward the end of the campaign, which usually means one thing: he knew he was in trouble.

Still, that margin is brutal. I mean she even wrecked him in his home precinct and the vato was just elected not that long ago. 

And unfortunately for him, election night also happened to be the day he lost his job and a race.

That’s a rough Tuesday.

Other Judicial Races

In the race for the 168th District Court, which Judge Marcos Lizarraga is vacating, Bernardo Cruz and Enrique Holguin are headed into a runoff.

To be honest, I had never even heard of Holguin before election night. I didn’t see campaign signs, mailers, or much online presence.

And yet somehow, he made the runoff.

Politics can be weird like that.

In County Court at Law Number 2, Christina Montes and Frances Maldonado are heading to a runoff as well, with Sergio Saldivar finishing a distant third.

County Court at Law Number 4 produced one of the more interesting results of the night.

It was the only race with more than two candidates that did not go to a runoff. Eunice Reyes defeated longtime Judge Marcos Lizarraga and Jeff Rago outright.

From early on, that race had the feel of a decisive outcome rather than a runoff.

The probate court race was also notable.

A sitting judge from another court left his bench to run for probate court and ended up losing to first-time candidate Gabriella Reed.

That’s a risky career move that did not pay off.

JP Precinct 7

Stephanie Fritizie was the only challenger in the JP candidate field that under-performed. All the other JP incumbents went into a run-off. Enriquez had the benefit of only having one challenger and he defeated her. 

JP Precinct 1

Finally, the JP 1 race deserves a mention because it doesn’t fit the pattern of the other JP contests.

This was an open seat with no incumbent, and it’s heading to a runoff between Denise Butterworth and Octavio Dominguez.

Because it’s largely a West Side district, ethnicity plays a smaller role than it typically does in El Paso politics, especially in a runoff.

One surprising result was Shane Edmonson finishing last. As the stepson of Brian Kennedy, I expected him to perform better.

Candidates Who Should Consider a New Hobby

There’s probably one candidate who will never run for office again: Judge Marcos Lizarraga.

But there are a few who probably shouldn’t.

1. Nico Dominguez

                Ya güey. Enough already.

2. Yolie Rodela

                Yes, she’s younger than the incumbent. But the sheer number of personal and background issues suggests public service might not be the best career path.

3. Sergio Saldivar

                A seat on the bench just doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

Final Thought: The Canutillo Shift

One final observation.

Something is clearly changing politically in the Canutillo area.

Several longtime figures associated with that part of the county have recently lost their positions: Armando Rodriguez, Sergio Coronado, and Stephenie Fritzie.

For the first time in a long time, none of them will hold office.

That’s not just a coincidence.

That’s a shift.