Eastside City Council Races Get Crowded

City Council races are going to be the main event in the November election since pretty much all the state and county races are over-with at the end of the primary election cycle. 

I mean Beto is going to be the big draw, Escobar is going to trounce Irene Armendariz-Jackson, and Sergio Coronado is likely going to win the Commissioner's race. 

So the competitive races are going to be the city council races. Although competitive is a relative term. The District 5 and District 6 races will be competitive. District 1 seems to have only one candidate right now, Analisa Cordova Silverstein.

I haven't really looked into her much or kicked the tires, but I got some weird text messages from someone who is a supporter but is super secretive and annoying so I blocked the number after repeated attempts to find out who the person was. I now know who he is.  

District 6

District 6 race has three candidates so far, incumbent City Rep Claudia Rodriguez who is a hard-core Trump supporter, former State Rep Art Fierro who ran as a Democrat but has raised far more Republican money than Rodriguez has, and Christian Botello. I think he was Lizarraga's staffer at one point. 

Honestly, I'd be surprised if he stayed in the race now that Fierro has filed to run against Rodriguez. He doesn't really have a path to victory with Fierro in the race. 

I haven't checked the reports but I assume Fierro spent all his money but its possible he has some left over and I know for a fact that he's not shy about asking for contributions so he'll raise the money he needs, no doubt. Rodriguez is no dummy, she ran on her first name the last time and will likely do so again considering she has no accomplishments while in office to run on. 

Honestly, this race is going to be super interesting and fun to watch. Rodriguez was heavily supported by Max Grossman and his clan of conservatives and he's good pals with Lily Limón, who is part of Art Fierro's consulting firm that is now affiliated with Martin Paredes who after the veneer of pretending to be an unbiased media source is now out of the closet as a political consultant. 

District 5

This is sort of a mirror image of the District 6 race. Two male candidates facing an incumbent Latina. One of the candidates is an older former state rep and the other is a younger candidate who has never been on the ballot before. Like I said, pretty similar.  Incumbent Isabel Salcido is being challenged by former State Rep Joe Pickett, who I think is still dealing with some sort of residency questions (I'll get more info and do a separate post on that one), and political newcomer Richard Genera. Genera and Botello have the same problem, voters don't know them and because the races are in November and not in May, its going to be super expensive for them to reasonably make a dent in the turnout. Neither of them will have a lot of campaign dough, and their best hope is to give Fierro and Pickett a chance at a run-off. 

Politics is the intersection of timing and opportunity - and Genera and Botello and the timing of their races just isn't there. I hope they both stick around though, they are both bright and have a future. 

Now I know what most of you are thinking - why isn't Pickett the favorite? Well for one, his campaign team has a terrible record. But there are a lot of other factors to consider. For example, if this was a May election - I think Pickett would have the advantage. A May election is a more predictable group of voters, and far less expensive to reach which would mean his campaign dollars would go much further. The May electorate is more conservative, more white, more educated and knowledgeable of city government and older. 

All major advantages for Pickett. 

But its a November election. The November voters simply aren't as educated on local issues. They are younger and with Beto on the ballot, he will pull a strong number of younger voters out. You think younger voters, most of which will be people of color, are going to be inclined to vote for older white guys? 

Nope. 

Most young people don't even remember Joe Pickett. He's been out of politics for a while so he's going to have to introduce himself to a significant portion of the electorate. 

Both races are going to get dirty, obviously because of the political consultants involved who have a track-record of flinging mierda. Now its not so bad for Fierro because its easy to make Trump-bots like Rodriguez villains in heavily Democratic El Paso. 

And Fierro is Latino. So its sort of political brown-on-brown crime. 

But ask yourselves a serious question - when was the last time an old white guy won an election in El Paso when there were younger candidates as an option? Don't say the mayor race because that was two old white guys against one another. 

Take a look around, older white guys in El Paso politics are kinda on the political endangered species list now that most of El Paso's elected leaders look like the population they actually represent. 

District 8 & District 1

Yawn.

The westside races so far are pretty boring. Only one candidate in Svarzbein's district is running so far - but I know of a few people who see recognize that the door is wide open in that race, and so far Lizarraga has Richard Wright running again. He's run previously and was unsuccessful but there are rumors that have been floating around for several months that Brian Kennedy is going to challenge Lizarraga. 

But the filing deadline ins't until August so expect every single city council race to end up with several candidates on the ballot. This is when everyone shoots their shot, so the landscape will undoubtedly change along the way.