2022 Primary Winners & Losers

Y'all know this is a traditional post-election post. Lets get right into it shall we?

It goes without saying that Beto and Veronica Escobar had big wins. Escobar crushed her opponent, as predicted and will do the same in November. I don't know what it is about Escobar that she attracts the strangest opponents, but they are all so weird. This was a warm-up act for Beto, as the big fight is in November. I'm not doing all the races because a few of them were just ho-hum.

House District 79

So lets start with the biggest local race - the race for House District 79. As you know by now State Rep Claudia Ordaz handily defeated State Rep Art Fierro for the HD79 seat. This is the 5th campaign for COP in 8 years, and no-one has ever managed to keep her below 60%. She wins, and she wins solidly. As usual, everyone and their Nana in the political establishment lined up against her. And as usual, they end up with egg on their face. Especially City Rep Annello who has made it a practice of hers to go ofter Latina elected officials for some reason.  I mean at some point after the 4 other times everyone lined up against COP they must've realized that they are simply out of touch with the electorate. 

I myself have a long memory and remember people who slight me, but COP is far more classy than I and doesn't really let the whole political Mean Girls routine get to her. I guess stomping a mud hole in your opponents after everyone lined up against you tends to put things in perspective. 

Someone needs to say it, so I'll be the one. The opposition from the political establishment against her started with Sylvestre Reyes and picked up by Joe Moody, Mary Gonzalez, Alexandra Annello etc, is 100% personal and not at all about values. COP is a founding member of the progressive caucus. She told voters she was going to Austin to fight for El Paso, especially after only one other member of the delegation gave a shit about a medical waste facility coming to El Paso, and she did what she said she was going to do. Thats why the progressive members of the legislature went to bat for her. 

Now there was a time when members of the political establishment ganged up on a politician from the valley who represented HD76 before. That as you know, was Norma Chavez. But she was divisive, spent more time fighting with the delegation, making enemies, and giving El Paso a bad name in Austin. At that time, it made sense that the local political establishment ganged up on Chavez. 

COP is the exact opposite. And she's effective without any of the drama. She doesn't beef with anyone and after everyone lined up against her the first time she ran - she put the past behind her and tried to work with her colleagues that act magnanimous in front of local cameras but behind the scenes have worked against her whenever possible. And what is the great sin she committed against them? She ran for the HD76 that they had reserved for a former staffer that doesn't even live in El Paso. But most importantly, for the 5th time in 8 years, after negative attack after negative attack, the voters have spoken loud and clear. The political establishment might not like her - but the voters clearly do. 

COP has represented parts of the eastside since she first ran for city rep. What is most telling about her victory is that she not only won every precinct in the district, but even in areas she hasn't represented before, she still did very well. The Northeast is a perfect example. She won by the widest margins up there - with being over 70% in all the NE precincts except one, but it was still the upper 60's.

The biggest loser in HD 79 is Sun Circle. The political consulting firm run by former City Reps Eddie Holguin and Lily Limón. They pretty much lost every single race they were involved in and this round of elections was a disaster for them. According to a couple of mutual friends, Holguin was bragging about Fierro having it in the bag. 

So much for the bag - they couldn't manage to win one single precinct in the race, not even the precinct Fierro used to live in, or the one he currently lives in. 

Before this race, Art Fierro and Jorge Rivas were two happy-go-lucky guys where super likable. Somehow they each got talked into doing really ugly negative attacks on their opponents - both young Latina candidates. Both of them were messages that were poorly executed. They came across super ugly and misleading. No consultant should ever talk you into anything - much less being someone you're not. Because remember, you gotta live and work in El Paso after its all said and done.

Art Fierro's future...who knows. But sending a couple of negative mailers the last week of the election the very day that he reported large Republican donations (that probably in a huge twist of irony, paid for the mailers) certainly don't help his future. He's been in office in some capacity for the last 16 years - maybe its the end for him, maybe its not. Who knows, maybe he'll run for County Commissioner on the east side whenever Commissioner Leon retires? I'm sure that won't make Lily Limón very happy because she's been eyeing that seat for a long time. 

I genuinely feel bad for Jorge Rivas. He spent a ton of money and his campaign team talked him into doing things completely out of character for him and he had a poor showing for what he put into it. I honestly tried to warn him. 

Well, now he and Art can give the Seattle Seahawks their colors back. 

Loser Honorable Mentions - State Reps Joe Moody and Mary Gonzalez who have been working against COP quietly for a couple of years now. Of all the things happening in Texas, and its bad enough that they both came back to Austin with Art Fierro to enable the GOP and their extremist agenda, but you'd think maybe they'd find something else more beneficial to El Paso to focus on. 

Winner Honorable Mention - I give Chris Hernandez a lot of shit because he takes on too many campaigns, seems to always back the worst candidates (which has been his biggest problem) and is terrible at managing a message. I also give him a bunch of shit because I know he's a big Tony Romo fan and I've compared to Tony Romo before - because he can't ever seem to win when it mattered most. Well ladies and gentlemen, politically speaking - Romo got his super bowl win. Despite having a lot of adversity, he got the job done in the field. And in a race with low voter turnout - field matters more than anything else. See what happens when you back good candidates and not train wrecks , Chris? 

County Commissioner Precinct 2

Normally when an incumbent ends up in a run-off its a sign they are in trouble. That doesn't appear to be the case for County Commissioner David Stout though. Stout is running in new areas he didn't previous represent, he was outspent by a pretty big margin by an Hispanic woman, and he is still going into the run-off with the most votes. Thats pretty encouraging for Stout. 

Honestly, I think any objective analysis shows that Judy Gutierrez under-performed, and judging by the last time she was in a run-off, Gutierrez's prospects don't look too bright. Her problem is 100% messaging. We get it, the sheriff's union supports you - but you've got to have a more substantive message to voters than saying Stout wants to defund police - which to my knowledge he never has - nor has ever voted anti-sheriff's office. Lets just call this what it is - the SO union's leadership are a bunch of Republicans and they don't like Stout because he's a liberal. It most certainly has nothing to do with his voting record because he's always supported labor. But the SO's don't think they are labor. They think they are different. Probably because they have the most obscene contract of any employees at the county... but no one wants to talk about that...

So yet again - the El Paso County Sheriff's Officer's Association dumps a ton of hard-earned contributions from their members behind a candidate that came up short. 

Again. 

I mean this is a pretty regular occurrence at this point. 

County Commissioner Precinct 4

Big winner - Sergio Coronado. Anyone who understands the local political landscape knew this was going into a run-off. Carl Robinson is a one-term incumbent who pretty much accomplished nothing during his term and has had a myriad of health issues that have plagued him during his first term causing long periods of absences. As much as Eddie Holguin's business associate Martin Paredes tries to say its a "whisper campaign", its actually a documented fact. There's no whisper about it - I've been pretty much screaming about it at the top of my lungs. 

Ironically after Sun Circle tried to attack their client's opponents in other races by alleging they are Republicans, Robinson is going to sound like a stone cold Republican in the run-off - which is going to play right into Coronado's hands. Robinson is going to talk about never raising taxes and controlling spending and being pro law enforcement. With anemic turn-out during the primary its only the most disciplined voters that will be coming back to the polls and that Republican song and dance isn't going to work. 

He's going to play the sympathy card about his health in attempt to salvage his seat. Its not going to work.

The Republicans have a run-off in this race as well. Another dumpster fire of candidates. One is a long-time Republican who suddenly tried to file as a Democratic candidate for this race before switching back to being a Republican. The other candidate allegedly stole money from a children's charity. 

Eddie Holguin's boy Martin Paredes apparently tried to say I fabricated some documents about him. But thats (yet another) lie from Paredes, who pretty much just writes stuff for Eddie's clients or against Eddie's client's opponents. Since Eddie is a quasi Republican himself, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he was working with one of the Republicans in the race. 

Nothing would be more on-brand about Eddie Holguin who's closest political advisor his entire career was a Republican than for him to send out mailers critical of Republican money going to Democratic candidates and working with Republican candidates in the same cycle.  

There is so much more about one of the Republican candidates in the race that is going to come out, it'll be hard to see Sun Circle's blogger try to get the shit back in the horse once it comes out. 

The 327th District Court

Clearly the big winners are the voters. That race was a dumpster fire of candidate drama. The voters didn't select either of the candidates with all the drama to advance to a run-off election, once again restoring my faith in the electorate. Although honestly, I was really worried that one of them would make a run-off. The voters chose the two drama-free candidates to go to the run-off and as a result we will have a really boring run-off between two qualified candidates that are likely not going to through any mud at one another. 

Its going to be refreshingly boring. And that ladies and gentlemen, is as it should be.

I don't know that I can definitively pick a loser in this race. But it is a cautionary tale. If you know you got drama in your background - expect that it will come out and be ready to deal with it - not mad that it got out. Killing the messenger doesn't clean up your liabilities. They still exist. 

County Court at Law #3

I mean I sort of touched on this earlier in the post but obviously the biggest loser in this race was Jorge Rivas. He put so much money into this race but as I have said so many times before, politics is the intersection of timing and opportunity. He ran against two younger and attractive Latina candidates with similar resumes. Point blank - his campaign team didn't get it done and Rivas made a few bad decisions that ultimately led to this inevitable outcome. 

The big winner? Hard to saw because both candidates are going to have one huge problem on their hands in the run-off - how do they distinguish themselves from one another. Here's an uncomfortable truth for judicial candidates - no one came out to vote for you. They were voting for Beto or Escobar or the state rep race - everyone else happened to be on the ballot. The turnout was anemic. 

But in the run-off, the only people that are coming out are the ones that will be pushed out to the polls by the campaigns that are in the run-off election. The winner in this race is the one that finds a way to distinguish herself from her opponent and leverage that into votes. 

State Board of Education District #1

Seriously - what a desmadre! Omar Yanar is going to go down in history as the most well-funded political failure in the history of El Paso. How does a vato who has $200,000 thrown into his campaign come in last with only 24% of the vote in a race no one gives a shit about? Simple - blow all your money into television ads. 

I know my old friend Bob Nitzburg likes to tell candidates that there is no better investment in political dollars than TV ads but it is far and away the biggest waste of money for local races and every single election cycle it becomes a bigger and bigger waste of money. 

Yanar dropped big money on TV and got nothing for it. I'd feel bad for his financial backers but they are all charter school douches - and for some reason, Jeremy Jordan. I don't know why - but that dude is always mixed up with shady candidates. I don't get it. 

The big winner in this race is Teacher Unions. They pulled out all the stops to block Yanar and were successful at it. 

Justice of the Peace Precinct 5

The biggest loser in this race is the Lower Valley. The candidates in the run-off election are objectively the worst Justice of the Peace (John-John Chatman) and the only candidate capable of doing a worse job than Chatman - Lucilla Najera. 

Chatman's office is a complete mess. Cases aren't moving and he can't keep staff members. He's blaming it on COVID, but it was a mess before COVID. I bet if a reporter did an open records request to see how many cases are moving in his court prior to the pandemic and after, there probably would be a decline in productivity, but that would be in a court with abysmal performance to begin with. But I bet if that same reporter also did an open records requests of all the marriage certificates with his name on it, I but voters would see that he kept himself pretty busy doing weddings. 

JP's have this little personal slush fund where they perform weddings - there's no limit to what they can charge to do the wedding - and they keep 100% of those proceeds for themselves. None of it goes back to tax payers to offset costs. 

But Najera is the one candidate that I can image actually being worse than Chatman. She simply has no understanding of what the office does. She's an opportunist who wants a title and is not at all familiar about what the office actually does. I've personally witnessed her promise voters a whole myriad of things that she simply wouldn't have the power to do as a Justice of the Peace. 

That means she's either lying or ignorant. 

Both should be disqualifies for the office. 

Thankfully I don't live in the area anymore so I don't have a vote in the area. Otherwise there's a 100% chance I'd show up to the polls for the sole purpose of under-voting in that race. 

I know this is grim but if you live in that part of the valley that is represented by that JP - you're screwed no matter who you vote for. So close your eyes and touch the screen and whoever's name you land on is an equally shitty choice.