El Paso Mayoral Race 2020 Breakdown

I got my first look at the mayoral candidates Monday night during a meeting with the Eastside Democrats. After watching the conversation it is clear to me that the six candidates can be grouped in three different tiers. 

Actually there are two sets of three tiers. I know, thats complicated but bear with me. First let me lay out the candidates by "type". 

Before I go on, every single person that is running seems to be a really nice person. But that honestly has absolutely nothing to do with who will make a good mayor. Also, and this needs to be said because people forget it way too often...the mayoral position isn't all that important in terms of city politics. What matters most is who has the majority on council. You have the majority, the mayor is completely irrelevant. If you don't understand that, you should take a local civics class. 

Hands down the biggest takeaway from the Eastside Dems mayoral forum is the fact that despite the fact that former Mayor Oscar Leeser lives in a million dollar home...he has a pretty chaffa internet connection. It was so bad that at one point I actually suggested that he put some aluminum foil on an antenna...(if I have to explain that to you, you clearly didn't grow up in the barrio...) It was his Marco Rubio water break moment. 

The Future:

Its clear that Carlos Gallinar and Veronica Carbajal are in a similar category. Two young progressive Latinos from the same generation and both from working class backgrounds. Both bright, both young, look like your average El Pasoan. They were hands down the most impressive candidates in the candidate forums. Both articulate, smart, and were the closest to answering the questions posed to them. The most interesting thing about this dynamic of these two candidates is which factions are supporting the respective candidates. Obviously its pretty clear that Gallinar has the edge in terms of political "rock star" support - he's endorsed by Congresswoman Escobar and Beto O'Rourke. Carbajal is endorsed by former Senator Jose Rodriguez. 

The Past:

First, I felt like making a drinking bingo game of this debate at one point. Very few of the candidates actually answered the questions posed to them during the debate. That was super annoying. 

Also, everyone says they aren't going to raise taxes but almost none of them actually stated what they would cut or how they would get to anything that looks like a balanced budget. 

I could also call this category the old rich white guy category. The current mayor, the former mayor, basically cut from the same cloth - both with Republican voting history - and very little different. Both so wealthy that they don't really connect with your average El Pasoan, both business guys that are used to being "the boss". And quite frankly neither of them have done anything as mayor that is anything to write home about. Leeser's campaign is interesting because there seems to be a little rift in his huddle. I've heard from political sources around town that Leeser is getting a hard time about his inner circle. Sources tell me that the former Mayor is telling folks that he is only using Eddie Holguin and Lily Limón, his biggest supporters, for signs and other small things like that. Which is weird because they pretty much tell anyone that will listen that they are running his campaign. But again, those are factions of the past. 

I have to give a special mention to Mayor Margo here. He's a Republican. He's pretty much unapologetic about it. He tangled with the President and pissed him off. And the local Trump nuts hate him pretty much as much as the local Democratic Party does. 

But he still showed up to defend his record. He knows he's probably not gonna gain a single vote showing up to a Democratic event, but he showed up and that takes brass balls. So I give him credit for that. 

That being said - he was very clearly participating in the meeting from his office at city hall. You can't use a public resource - like his office at city hall or the internet - to participate in partisan political events. So I think that there is a definite problem with that. I wouldn't have really caught it had he not mentioned he left a city meeting to participate in the forum. 

The Also-Rans

Dean Martinez and Calvin Zielsdorf both seem to be nice guys, but again that doesn't really matter when it comes to being a good mayor. Calvin is a liberal, Dean is a Trump supporter. Calvin is a former fire fighter and to me, seems to be the most average Joe of all the candidates. He's a guy I could probably sit and talk politics over a pitcher. But he doesn't have a base, money, or name recognition to be a real factor. He also has a pretty spotty voting history, so that is a little annoying to hear a guy with spotty voting history waxing poetic on local policy. 

Reminds me of the time a prominent political activist ran for office and it turned out she hadn't voted before. 

Dean Martinez is the kind of guy that I would probably run into at an American Legion bar and halfway through a pitcher we'd get into an argument about Trump. No base and he has a voting history that just doesn't match El Paso values. 

The Run-Off

This race is going to go into a run-off. The question is who will be in the run-off. The reality is that Oscar Leeser has had a generation of car commercials to pound his name into the heads of El Pasoans. And in a November election where the less educated voters out-number the more savvy voters by a pretty big margin, Leeser is likely to make a run-off election. 

Not because he's a good candidate or has wide support, but because people will remember his name. He's currently running the WORST political commercials I think I've ever seen, terrible produced and a terrible message - some of his adds actually have him looking to the side, almost the back of his head - and even that won't hurt the fact that a lot of people know his name. So for that reason, and that reason alone, he will likely make a run-off. 

The question is who is going to be in the run-off with him? His name ID no longer matters in a run-off and it will come down to who has the better field game at that point. So who is gonna be in the run-off with him? Well, lets start with who its not gonna be. Its not gonna be Martinez, Zielsdorf, or Margo. Margo is the only one that doesn't understand he's political dead man walking. The business guys like him, but he's a Republican in a Democratic town. Whats worse is that the Trump fans are anti-Margo. So his a man without a base. Like I said earlier Martinez and Zielsdorf aren't serious candidates. 

So it will come down to Gallinar and Carbajal in the run-off. Which ever one makes the run-off, will be the next mayor. Two progressive Chicanos running against one of the rich old white mayors - the question is which one will it be?

Carbajal is really pushing the "Veronica" name, perhaps in hopes that she'll get some Escobar voters to back her. Gallinar has the support of both Congresswoman Escobar and Beto O'Rourke. 

As a political homie is fond of saying, "grab your popcorn".