District 4 Race Starts Up

District 4 has always been an eclectic group of characters that run for office, which means its always an interesting race to watch - if for no other reason than pure entertainment value.

Now, this years its probably gonna be a little more interesting than usual because well, you can't have a race in the Northeast without a little controversy. The incumbent City Rep is Dr. Sam Morgan, who is currently facing domestic violence charges.

He's not going to win.

That isn't a commentary on his guilt or innocence by the way - but he's a black man accused of hitting a white woman...I think we've all seen this movie before. Domestic violence is a serious issue. So are racial disparities in our justice system. There's a lot to unpack there and as long as that case is pending, voters aren't going to elect him.

He probably doesn't know that yet. The reality is that he was involved in two very close city council races, one he lost and one he won, so reelection was an uphill climb in the best of circumstances, its nearly impossible now.

True to form, there are already 6 candidates that have filed for a treasurer to be a candidate for that seat - not counting the incumbent. So there will most certainly be a run-off election.

But one candidate has recently thrown her name in that I think changes the dynamic of the race and is likely to be the top vote-getter heading into a run-off election.

That is Dorothy "Sissy" Byrd.

Sissy has been involved in politics for a long time in the Northeast and is a leader in the African-American community, which is obviously a key voting block in District 4. She's outspoken and not only knows policy, but she knows people. She empathizes and understands other people's problems and situations. That's a big advantage when it comes to the likability factor. She has a base and potentially a pretty big volunteer pool that will consistently help her campaign, cutting down on costs. November municipal elections mean that you are not dealing with the same group of voters as the traditional May elections. As a result, you have an electorate that is far less familiar with city issues. Most people that are going to go vote are going to be there to vote in the presidential race. Guess what? Those people are far more likely to vote for the name that sounds familiar to them and Susie Byrd, who is now a staffer for Congresswoman Escobar was on the ballot several times in that neck of the woods, though not that district. So Sissy Byrd, will benefit from her name sounding a lot like Susie Byrd.

Think I'm wrong? As Claudia Rodriguez how she got elected. Its not because a bunch of people in the Mission Valley agree with her hard core Republican values or the fact that she's owned by Max Grossman, its because people in that district were used to voting for a Claudia.

Word around town is she's got money squirrel away to get a campaign going. She's the incumbent's biggest threat right now. I saw threat only because the reality is that because some people have heard the name a few times, he'll pick up a pretty solid number of votes. So he may pick up enough to be in a run-off, despite the issues he's dealing with - though I doubt it.

The other candidates are as follows:

Joe Molinar - Really nice guy. I happen to like him quite a bit. Strong roots in the northeast and in the business community. He's the only one with a Latino name so far, which will give him some much-needed help because he doesn't have strong name-ID and the Northeast is an area that is probably the only diverse part of El Paso. If he plays his cards right, gets a couple breaks along the way, he could make a run-off. But he needs other people to make mistakes and he has to be perfect. He's a long shot, but there's a heartbeat there.

Kaleb Warnock - He's another candidate owned by Max Grossman. I went to look him up on VAN to see what his voting record looked like and I actually can't find anyone registered to vote in El Paso County by that name. Also, when I search the voter rolls by the address he listed on his forms there is no one with his name at that address. There are three voters listed at the address, but he's not one of them. So maybe thats a stage name or something - or maybe the Secretary of State's office hasn't updated their records recently. Who knows? Interesting though. He will at least have the money the Houston Suga Daddy will put behind the Max Grossman candidates.

Bayani Dado - I know nothing about this person.

Shawnasur Nixon - Nice young man - be he has a TON of problems. From the start of his campaign months ago he's had to deal with issue after issue after issue. His social media is problematic as well. He once posted something about winning the Pulitzer Prize when he was a journalist in a city in Philadelphia. I can't find anywhere that he won a Pulitzer Prize. He also apparently said he was a Walmart employee at the time of the shooting and was featured in a lot of press coverage mostly because Beto showed him a lot of compassion at a time when we were all hurting. He also has some financial issue hanging over his head where he allegedly owed some guy money for work he'd done and Nixon allegedly told him that he had accidentally donated the money to an elected official's campaign, but that elected official never received anything from him. Its all a mess and a lot of drama. I genuinely think he wants to make El Paso a better place, he's just not candidate material.

Wesley Lawrence - Wesley was one of the first people to throw their name into the race for this seat. He used to be a Republican, now he's a Democrat. Again, nice guy but has already burned a lot of bridges by making the mistake of jumping headfirst into Democratic Party faction wars. There's certainly a way to be a part of the either the Democratic or Republican Party in El Paso without being dragged into the various factions in each Party. Plenty of people successfully navigate that issue. But Lawrence seemed to actually seek it out rather than try to avoid it. He makes it a practice to "endorse" candidates for races but they almost always end up being the candidates that lose. And then amazingly - seeks the endorsement of elected officials that Wesley actively worked against. Certainly not a wise move on his part... Wes is going to need a lot of money to move the needle in this race and unfortunately for him Max Grossman already has a candidate so the Houston Suga Daddy isn't going to fund is race, so he is gonna have to figure out where he's going to get the money necessary to make his candidacy competitive. Wesley's strengths are that he's intelligent, has a decent grasp of policy at the city, and its not afraid to ask for people's vote. If you spend 5 minutes with the guy you realize he's a sponge. He wants to soak up as much knowledge as he can, which is a great asset for a young guy like him. His biggest problem isn going to be communicating to voters what he's done. I don't know that he has a major accomplishment he can "sell" to voters as to why he should be a city rep. Without that, its gonna be hard for voters to see him as someone who can effectively advocate for the Northeast especially when he's going to be compared with the incumbent and big personalities like Byrd and Molinar with an established track record in the Northeast. Wes doesn't have a base, he doesn't have a lot of campaign dough, and he's going to need a pretty big and consistent volunteer base to help him campaign.

So that is a quick rundown of the candidates for City Representative District 4 so far. I'm sure there will be plenty more jumping in the race at some point between now and the deadline to file. I'll keep you posted.