Winners & Losers 2020 Primary Edition

As is tradition, its time for the winners and losers post that comes after elections. Obviously, this one is going to be a long one so sit tight.

Lets cut to the quick - the delegation lost and they lost big time. Along with their political allies, which pretty much made up a large portion of El Paso's political establishment. So did Sun Circle Strategic Group and their clients. So did a bunch of loudmouths like Max Grossman, and Jud Burgess, who is now COP's constituent - in what I consider a nice bit of political poetic justice.

But lets start with winners.

Obviously the biggest winner of the night was Team Perez. Claudia Ordaz Perez won in convincing fashion over the state delegation and pretty much every political group, faction, team, and organization in town in defeating Elisa Tamayo soundly.

Vince Perez was ahead going into a run-off in a race he was basically fighting with one hand tied behind his back and the Holguin's having a shadow candidate do no campaigning for himself but suddenly being funded enough to afford attack pieces and signs against Vince.

Team Perez have demonstrated that they are the top strategists and field team in town. Now motivated by a big win - and a little blood from being negatively attacked by Iliana Holguin, Norma Chavez, and their straw man candidate Eduardo Romero - they are going to campaign full-force to finish it off. I think there are a probably a lot of people that are rightfully regretting ganging up on Team Perez and likely won't want to make that mistake again. As they say, elections have consequences.

Juan Garcia probably worked harder on these campaigns that he has ever had to on another and obviously deserves to be on the varsity team. You have to put in a lot of hours on campaigns like these and he made a comment that made me chuckle a while back - he said he'd never ever complain about lazy candidates ever again.

Arlinda Valencia and the Ysleta Teachers Association also had a big win. The TSTA locals held a candidate interview process in which all three local presidents had a chance to interview the candidates and make a recommendation to the state on who to endorse.

They were the only teachers group to actually have a fair and objective selection process and they chose COP. But the delegation leaned on the state entity to "stay out of it" and so Valencia was free to make her own local endorsement.

During that entire process YTA President Arlinda Valencia stood firm on their endorsement of COP despite pressure from the state, the delegation, and even a fellow teacher association in EPISD, led by the aforementioned Ross Moore. Moore said a lot of things that were flat out lies and attacked his YTA colleague in public. I'm told the folks in Austin are not happy with Ol' Bossy Rossy.

But he learned a hard lesson, you don't mess with YTA's Momma Bear.

Also, he made a complete joke out of his organizations motto of "We care. We show up. We fight. We vote. " Yeah, no you don't. Or at least not Bossy Rossy.

James Montoya overcame a terrible ballot spot and someone with the same last name on the ballot, who just so happens to be the former fiancé and financial contributor of Yvonne Rosales, to be in a run-off. Rosales has already demonstrated that can't win run-off elections when she's facing long-time incumbent that is pretty unpopular. She's in trouble and she probably doesn't understand that. If she couldn't beat an unpopular long-time incumbent in a run-off last time, its really hard to see how she does it now, regardless of how bat-shit crazy her supporters are on social media.

And trust me, they are bat-shit crazy.

The next winner is - I know, you're not going to believe this, but - Chris Hernandez. I have often referred to my frenemy Chris Hernandez as the Tony Romo of El Paso politics - the guy who always gets paid way more than he's worth but can never win the big game. Well, he finally pulled off a quality win, no matter how you measure it. He beat his mentor Mike Apodaca in a race that was a down ballot race in which Apodaca's candidate had all the resources necessary to win. It was a judicial race and I know most of you probably don't think much of those races but the fact that it was a down ballot race that was actually why it was significant. It meant that they were basically on equal footing. In fact, you could argue that Apodaca's candidate had the advantage in many respects.

And like all good Star Wars films, the apprentice always defeats his master. Sorry Mike Apodaca, no sprinkles this cycle. You know the rule.

If you were shocked to see Hernandez make the winners list, you're really going to be shocked at this one - Dora Oaxaca. She overcame a lot of really negative stuff from a few folks that used to be in office, a rough past, and probably a 100 bad blog posts by Yours Truly over the years, to pretty much decimate the field she was running against.

I don't recall the last time I saw a Democratic Party Chair candidate take a race so seriously but Oaxaca certainly did. She sent out multiple pieces of mail, I heard she knocked doors, and had all the major early voting stations covered with poll sitters and signage. Chairwoman-elect Oaxaca earned her win and earned her place on the winners list.

Sheriff Wiles won without a run-off. It was really the best chance for him to end up in a run-off and he won handily.

Honorable Mention - Incumbent judges. With the exception of one, incumbent judges won on election night or are in a run-off. The judicial matrix was a major topic of the races - especially in that  8th Court of Appeals race. For the most part, the incumbents were able to defend their records.

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LOSERS

The Delegation

Well this one is obvious. The delegation - Jose Rodriguez, Cesar Blanco, Joe Moody, Mary Gonzalez, and Lina Ortega. I had heard that Lina Ortega was having a little buyer's remorse but after the last finance report, she clearly doubled-down. They took every possible step they could to lean on people, intimidate folks, and basically do everything they possibly could to cut off the support for COP that was ready to jump on her side.

If I see one more of their "we love each other so much" Facebook posts I'm gonna puke. They spent the last 6 months unnecessarily causing a lot of bad blood with the Representative-Elect acting's like she was somehow the second coming of someone as abrasive and useless as Norma Chavez.

Luckily for them, Rep-elect Ordaz Perez will probably show them the grace and goodwill that wasn't showed to her by them.

But here's something interesting for all you folks that know the inside baseball of the delegation - they were really good at blocking support for Ordaz Perez, but they sucked at securing support for Tamayo. You would've thought that at a minimum they would've been able to secure Texas Trial Lawyers Association money for Tamayo - but they didn't.

And COP didn't take any money from the TLR. So the only people that took money from from the TLR this cycle were - members of the delegation.

What I want to know is where the delegation was on election night? I mean those folks were in every picture they could be in during the campaign. Word around the media circles was they were avoiding the media.

Maybe next time they will learn some valuable lessons like - let the community decide who they want to represent them - and don't try to win races in the valley when you don't have a base there.

Oh, and for good measure I'm gonna add former Senator Eliot Shapleigh to the mix. Why he still thinks he has political stroke is beyond me, but he should've known he messed up with Norma Chavez came out in support of Tamayo.

One last thing while I'm talking about the delegation. I've been accused of "shit-talking" the delegation when I've defended COP or pointed out the stuff the delegation has done in terms of their own fundraising. That really speaks to a very troubling sentiment - the idea that they are somehow above scrutiny or critique. I don't know where that idea came from, but its a bunch of pedo.

If you dish it, you should be prepared to take it. But more importantly, we have a terrible campaign finance system in Texas. That is why Austin is Babylon. I don't know why the delegation would push political contributions as some issue to make when they exist in a system (they didn't make) is so ripe for political influences.

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Eddie Holguin, Lily Limón and Sun Circle Candidates

If it weren't for the delegation, Sun Circle Strategic Group would be first on the loser list.

I told y'all this was going to happen and you didn't listen. I warned you all that the only campaign that Eddie Holguin and Lily Limón really cared about was Iliana's and I told you all that the money you were paying was just being redirected to help Iliana's campaign. I told you he had too many campaigns to pay attention to yours.

And you didn't listen.

And you all lost - just so Iliana can make it to a run-off.

Sheriff Wiles won, but he has so much name ID that even Eddie and Lily couldn't screw that one up. In fact that makes his win all that much more impressive because he won IN SPITE of having Limón, Holguin and Chris Acosta.

Funny how they went from one election cycle going 9-2 to being a total mess this cycle. What changed?

They know...

My question is what are they going to do now that they don't have the other candidates to siphon money off of to divert to Iliana's campaign?

Norma Chavez

If Norma Chavez were the type of person to feel sympathy for - I would.

But she's not, so I don't. And now she's a liability that is going to hang prominently from the neck of Iliana Holguin from here to the end of the election.

Her streak of candidates she endorses losing remains intact, so there's that. Seriously the people she endorses don't even want her endorsement. Tamayo was touting endorsements of precinct chairs and never once mentioned the endorsement of the disgraced former State Rep that once held the same seat.

It must really bother her to know that her endorsement, someone who used to hold the seat, was neither wanted nor advertised. But what probably bothers her the most is the fact that COP won every precinct south of the freeway except one.

I don't know that anyone has ever pulled that off in a contested HD 76 race - not Cesar Blanco, not Naomi Gonzalez, and not Norma Chavez. Hell that must bother Eddie and Iliana Holguin too. Actually, Eddie is probably getting used to COP winning his precinct and all the precincts he represented in the valley. She's never lost his precinct and sweeping the valley is sorta her thing.

Then Norma gets called off the bench to help Iliana Holguin and the negative stuff and old-school valley dirty tricks start up. All she did was poke the bear and within a month or two, she's going to be scrambling to figure out how to fix what she just screwed up.

The Wanna-Be's

Cassandra Hernandez, Alexsandra Annello, David Stout, Josh Acevedo, and Stout's current staffer. They took all those cutesy little selfies when they went to the block walk events because the thought of COP having what Cassandra once dreamed of was just too much for them to handle.

Its funny to see how they tried to mean girl their way into a victory and it just didn't happen.

Its a shame that Hernandez and Annello both have opponents in November, isn't it?

Stout all but declared war on Commissioner Perez by supporting someone against his wife. That doesn't help Stout's desire to be county judge much at all and I'm pretty sure will make things pretty uncomfortable for him when he has to sit on the dais with the spouse of someone he tried to beat.

That is kind of the problem when a bunch of people gang up on a candidate - eventually those folks have their own races to run. If you couldn't beat the folks when you all ganged up on them, how do you think you'll do when you're all by your lonesome?

The Stooges

Max Grossman, Jud Burgess, Arnulfo Hernandez, and a collection of slacktivists that spend more time waxing poetic about plutocracy and cabals, barons of industry and "who runs El Paso".

Seriously it must really bother the shit out of them that they lost.

Let me guess, the Dandy and his merry band are now going to focus on the precinct 3 race?

Seriously, you guys get spanked so much in the valley I'm starting to think you like it. Which is cool, whatever bro. To each his own. Whatever you're into. No judgement here. Use a safe word.

I mean you'd think at least one of all those damn ethics complaints you all filed would have actually been legit, right? Nope. And weaponizing ethics complaints will only come back to haunt you.

I hear tell there's one in the works for one of their favorites...but sit tight on that one...

One little note about me losing my Precinct Chair race. Yeah, I lost. I didn't have time to campaign for myself because I was more focused on other stuff. But no excuse, I lost. Here's the funny part, especially for people Max Grossman. He doesn't know the Democratic Party in El Paso. Do you all think I'm just gonna disappear now that I'm not a precinct chair? Let me tell you something - if you think my influence in the part is tied to being a precinct chair, you're dead wrong. How many times have you all celebrated my supposed vanquishment? I only became precinct chair a couple years ago. But I've been involved in the Democratic Party for years and never held any kind of office. Sorry Dandy Boy, I won't be going anywhere.

Think Obi Wan on the first Death Star...

The Also-Rans

Elia Garcia and Eduardo Romero are on this list not just because they lost - but because they way they lost. First, lets start with the fact that the names Elia, Elisa, and Iliana were confusing voters. Not sure if any of them ever considered that, but I can tell you that a lot of voters had a hard time distinguishing the candidates.

Eduardo Romero ruined any political future the guy may have ever had. He was obviously tied to Eddie and Iliana Holguin through Martin Paredes that created the websites used to attack Perez. Now I'm about to lay out a bunch of old-school dirty politics that was employed by Romero and his handlers. Remember, he's 21 and lives in a trailer on Alameda and is a student. He somehow came up with the over a grand in cash, on the last day to file, to become a candidate. He filed two finance reports showing no money raised and no money spent. He basically did nothing as a candidate. Until right before Early Voting and he suddenly had a professionally designed walk piece (two pages), complete with an anti-Perez website. This was all designed by Martin Paredes and had all the familiar incoherent tones of crazy like conspiracies about fast food restaurants, calling Vince a carpet-bagger - which is funny when you consider the fact that Iliana is from the westside, and even a collection of traffic tickets. Vince has a lot of traffic tickets.

The whole thing was just really, really funny. It was political capirotada. Then he suddenly came up with the money for a lot of campaign banners mounted on 4x4 pieces of corrugated plastic. I heard they hard a hard time in that crazy weather on Election Day, but he most certainly exceeded the amount of spending that will require him to report it. If not, there's an ethics complaint waiting for him. But make no mistake, its dirty pool. Being a straw man candidate for the Holguin's is the kind of foolish decision a young kid makes. He doesn't think about the long-term impact of the decision. He doesn't think what he will forever be associated with, he just went for the quick payday. So there is some poetic justice when it all blew up in his face.

Judicial Candidates

Patrick Bramlett and Marlene Gonzalez spent a LOT of money on the primaries and didn't win. For Bramlett, he didn't make a run-off so its the end of the road for him.

I really, really, really expensive road. But facing two candidates with Spanish surnames in El Paso is a steep hill to climb in El Paso.

Marlene Gonzalez had the advantage of being the only Latina in her race and didn't win outright. She's in trouble. She spent a lot of money on her race and went pretty negative after her opponent Judge Strathmann. The run-off is a different ballgame and you can't get by on just your name. I don't know if she has the resources to continue at the same rate of spending she did in the primary but there are limits to stuff like how much you can take out in loans etc.

She's gonna have a much harder time of things in the run-off. This race is going to be about who is going to have the resources left to finish this race off.

GOP

Anthony Aguero got his ass handed to him. I mean bad. Interesting to see his faction take over the Republican Party in El Paso but the guy who beat him to make it into a run-off was solidly in the faction of Chairman Telles, who lost his seat as the GOP chair.

There is a lot of turmoil and division in the El Paso Republican Party, which as a Democrat, makes me snicker. See y'all in November...

Left Out

Notice who I left out of the losers?

Elisa Tamayo.

Personally, I think she was used by the delegation. I think she's someone that after some experience under her belt and mentoring, could some day be a good leader in this community. I think she was taken advantage of and I think the thought was that she could be controlled and molded.

I sure hope that she finds a soft place to land when this is all said and done.

Her parents were always polite at the polling places and never started any beef with anyone else. They just campaigned hard for their daughter, like any other parent would.

And despite how heated things occasionally got in debates, neither candidate attacked the other personally, and showing she was raised right, she called after the election was over to congratulate Ordaz Perez and was very gracious. That can't have been an easy call to make and took a lot of courage. For that, she most certainly doesn't deserve to be on the loser list.