Local GOP Pipe Dream

I follow local politics across the political spectrum and most of you are probably unaware that there is actually a pretty cut-throat Republican primary going on for the Congressional District 16 race.

That is the race to determine who is going to get annihilated by Congresswoman Escobar in November.

But the local GOP folks have this pipe dream where they are somehow going to be able to win the congressional seat. I mean they never come remotely close, but this year they are hanging their hats on something they haven't before...the absence of straight-ticket voting.

I guess no one in the local GOP actually looks at data. I think they just all get together, come up with a narrative that makes them feel good, and then they just repeat it in their social media echo chamber until it makes sense to them.

Eventually, it becomes gospel to them.

Well allow me to give the ol' GOP some free data analysis. But I warn you guys, this is going to be sobering.

I know your side doesn't let a little thing like facts get in the way of your narratives, but that's the beautiful thing about numbers - they don't care what you think, what you want, what you thought or anything else.

They just are.

So here is why Republicans should stop lying to themselves. There simply aren't enough of them to matter in a general election.

The total number of voters in El Paso County that have any Republican Presidential Primary voting history in the last three presidential elections - which goes back more than a decade - is 35,077. That is how many people in the County of El Paso voted at least one time over the last ten years in a Republican Presidential Primary.  People that voted in at least two Republican Presidential Primary elections in El Paso county number 10,977. Those are people that are more likely to be Republican than not. You'd consider them reliably Republican voters. The first number as I said is one Republican Presidential Primary  so those could include quite a few Democrats who just couldn't stomach voting for Hillary so they have Republican voting history but aren't really strongly associated with the GOP. And if you look at people that have voted in 3 of the last 3 Presidential Primary elections in El Paso County, that is to say money-in-the-bank Republican voters in El Paso County that number is 3,432 voters. Those are the most reliable Republican voters in the County.

Now lets compare that to some Democratic numbers. So the total number of voters in El Paso County that voted Democratic Presidential Primary elections at least one time in the last three Democratic Presidential Primaries is 109,181. People that voted in at least 2 of the last 3 Democratic Presidential Primaries are 45,973. And voters that voted in all 3 of the last 3 Democratic Presidential Primaries - in other words the most reliable Democratic voters - are 18,568.

So here is your side-by-side comparison:

Voters that voted in one of the Party's Last Three Presidential Primary Elections (least reliable Party-line voters):

Democratic: 109,181
Republican:  35,077

difference: 74,104

Likely Party-line Voters (2 of 3 primary elections)

Democratic: 45,973
Republican: 10,977

difference: 34,996

Hardcore Party Voters (3 of 3 primary elections)

Democratic: 18,568
Republican: 3,432

difference: 15,136

The last number I will show you all is the number of the likely party-line voters that actually came out to vote in the 2016 General Election:

Democratic: 43,157
Republican: 10,529

difference: 32,528

I included that last number to demonstrate that the voters with stronger party affiliation are likely to vote in the general election. That is what spells doom for the GOP. The difference between the parties is just so vast. You have to have something that would be a statistical anomaly to make such an earth-shattering change to the local political landscape. You need a transcendent political figure or some sort of major scandal to make Democrats flock to the GOP in numbers that have never been seen anywhere in the country.

Instead, trump is just making Democrats more likely to vote Democratic. The GOP isn't throwing any money into the El Paso area to flip it either. Why? Because there simply isn't enough money in the world to flip El Paso from Blue to Red in anything less than 20 years at best. And with True pin office, the Democrats will likely expand their margin because of how much he energizes our base.

Trump is our Hillary. Remember how much you GOPers hate Hillary Clinton? Remember how much the thought of her in the White House gets under your skin so badly that you guys are willing to cross molten lava to go vote against her?

Thats how we feel about Trump.

Here's the bottom line and the most sobering part of this post for the Republican congressional candidates. You're fighting for nothing because there is no path to victory in November.

Among the least-likely party voters, we outnumber you about 3-1. Among likely party-line voters we outnumber you more than 4-1. Among the hardcore party voters we outnumber you almost 6-1.

The idea that the lack of straight-ticket voting is going to change those numbers significantly is simply not rooted in reality. The premise that you guys even believe that in the first place basically says that Democrats are stupid and don't know who they are voting for.

Thats arrogant. Democrats know who they are voting for. The fact that straight ticket voting was high is actually your biggest problem. It shows you guys have a brand problem. It shows that voters don't trust the GOP and vote for Democrats as a brand over Republicans.

You think that because there's no button there anymore than magically all those people that were voting for team Democrat are suddenly going to vote for Republicans?

You all are in for a really rude awakening in November...