Hernandez Mayoral Announcement - Part 2

Word around the campfire at city hall is that City Rep Cassandra Hernandez was furious yesterday because she was running from a cameraman and reporter that was asking about her announcement for a mayoral bid on Facebook the other day.

I didn't see the coverage on the news last night, but maybe they will air it in another news package. 

My sources at City Hall are saying that there will be a special meeting on Monday of city council to set a special election to replace City Rep Hernandez on council. 

Hernandez may be hoping that she can somehow keep her office since she pulled down her mayoral page and changed it back to her District 3 page. Unfortunately the AG and the law are pretty clear - there are no take-backsies.

If there is a meeting on Monday, that means council wants to get an election set soon and if its in November, I don't think there's an additional cost to voters. But if they have to do it another day, then its a REAL problem for Hernandez because it will mean that her political ambition will cost tax payers money and that is an easy message to leverage against her. 

And then there is her criminal record that didn't really come up during her city council race but will absolutely be leveraged against her in a mayoral race. Forma is going to eat her alive with that record. 

The interesting thing is going to be if she puts up some sort of fight against having an election set to replace her. Obviously she'd prefer to be on council during a mayoral bid so that she can use council meetings to go after one of her opponents but in terms of the law, it looks like that ship has very clearly sailed.

This photo on this blog post is another example of her announcing her intent to run for Mayor. Also, it looks like she had a professional make-up artist and photographer to take these pics of her. If she hasn't set up a campaign treasurer, then it looks like she made campaign expenditures and that is a major campaign violation. 

I think everyone would agree that if you aren't playing by the rules, and you already have a questionable background, you're gonna have a hard time convincing voters to support you. 

Obviously, when there are two white guys being running for Mayor (Leeser and Margo) in a town like El Paso, Latino candidates are going to do well, which is why Hernandez is running for Mayor. But the reality is that Hernandez isn't very self-aware. At this time, she'd have a hard time winning re-election. 

There is already at least one woman considering jumping in to replace Hernandez. But with her legal baggage, and the Jeremy Jordan connection, Hernandez is a weak candidate for mayor.

But there's another candidate that is about to get in the race that is going to be a very strong Latino candidate that will be getting in the race soon according to my sources. Election results show that even a weak Latino candidate will make a run-off against a white guy in a mayoral race Ortega made a run-off with Leeser and Saucedo made a run-off against Margo.

Can this guy beat Leeser? Who knows? But he has a much better shot than Hernandez because she has legal issues and a voting record on council that can be scrutinized. 

Either way, he's going to change the race and make Leeser spend a lot more money.