EP Primary 2020 - Shuffling the Deck

Don't look now but the 2020 primary has already begun and it will, in addition to the presidential primary, feature some interesting races on the local side of things. And obviously there will be some interesting races in the following November considering some idiots decided to move the municipal elections to the general cycle, which serves only to make money a bigger factor in local politics.

Keep this in mind - campaigns live at the intersection of timing and opportunity.

Anwho, lets talk about some the races and why they are important. There is a pretty big slate of local judicial races that always sort of upend things in the courthouse but most of the judicial races are going to fly under the radar this session.

But some of the biggest races could be the DA race, and two other possible races - the senate seat and possibly the westside/NE state rep seat.

So as you can see in this screenshot, State Representative Joe Moody is mulling over whether to leave his position in the state legislature or to run for District Attorney. Its sort of a foregone conclusion at this point considering he sent out an email this morning that talks to his work in criminal justice and mentions an upcoming announcement.

That is going to make a lot of dominoes fall. While if he stayed in the legislature he'd be the most influential El Pasoan in the lege, probably ever. He's in his thirties and he's already had the kind of career that gets buildings named after somebody.

But that leaves his seat open and destroys any chance of Yvonne Rosales (she's already sort of come out as a candidate for the position) being elected.

That leaves Moody's seat open. There are a couple of westsiders that might take a stab at a seat like that, and maybe a couple of people from the northeast. Obviously this is all supposition, but this really could open a lot of seats up and completely rearrange the seats on the deck of the Titanic.

There could be at least three members of city council that give that seat a look. Mayor Margo may decide the discretion is the better part of valor and run for that seat again rather than get wiped out by Leeser. Personally I don't think a Republican wins that seat again but if they are going to make a run at winning it, it would have to be when there is an open seat. Margo being the most prominent Republican in town, he's got a decent shot. Better than mayor anyway and it allows him to save some face. He'd have access to Austin money and he's held the seat before.

Biggest problem for Margo - Donald Trump. Demos won't support Margo because a) no one likes him and b) he's going to be tied to Trump. Republicans are going to have a hard time supporting him because well, Republicans are now less of a political party and more of a cult of Donald Trump. Margo stood up to Trump and defended our town against the lies Trump told about our community. That will be the unforgivable sin.

Which means someone like Andrew Haggerty may be looking at that seat. Uncle Pat held that seat for a long time and the Haggerty's have some political scores to settle with ol' Dee Margo. Reminds me of the days when Ma Haggerty was making commercials about a gallon of milk and Dee Margo...Yes, Andrew is the least liked Haggerty of the clan, but he's still a Haggerty and that ranks him above Dee Margo to most voters. His former seat on Commissioner's Court is mostly the westside with a little bit of the northeast, just like Moody's seat.

On the Democratic side, you'd have two city reps that have districts that overlap the area - Svarzbein and Morgan. Morgan still has another term he can serve on city council, so he'd have to make that decision - but the formula for an African-American to win a seat that is mostly on the westside and partially in the NE is already there. County Commissioner Carl Robinson did it recently.

Svarzbein is on his last term and has no where else to go. He's not viable for any other office so he might as well run for the state rep seat. He's demonstrated that he's a freaking fundraising machine. And just like a battered wife, he's gonna go right back to Forma Group and let them suck up all his campaign dollars again, no matter how many times they've done him wrong. He'll make excuses for them. "I had it coming." "I shouldn't have made them mad." "I fell down the stairs", or "bumped into a door." You know, standard excuses. They'll connect him to TLR and he'll be their next Naomi Gonzalez.

And I know what you're thinking...Margo and Forma, Svarzbein and Forma...come one now...you know that is some shit Forma would do...one candidate on the Republican side, one candidate on the Democratic side...both lose a bunch of money to "consulting fees" in the process.

Stop me when I'm wrong.

And there'll be names we haven't thought of yet that'll run for that seat too. But as you can see, it opens up a lot of possibilities and a lot of new names will surface to replace whomever has to resign to run.

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Senate Seat

Then there's the senate race - if there's going to be one. There's been an on-again, off-again rumor that State Senator Jose Rodriguez was going to retire. If that is the case, you can assume most members of the delegation will consider running for the seat, but really that race will be State Rep Cesar Blanco's race to lose.

Which would open up his seat. Which would likely open up one, maybe two city rep seats because they would like throw their hats in the ring to make a run at State Representative.

And that is where things get cray-cray. There's talk that Ambassador Stout may consider running for his old boss' seat, although I think he's pretty comfortable at the county. There's talk that disgraced former State Rep Norma Chavez might be thinking about running for city council.

Sweet baby Jesus I hope those rumors are true. I would like nothing better than for her to run for office one more time. Any office. Please, please, please, please let her run for something again. I seriously can't wait. I mean, she's not viable for anything, but God I want her to run for something again.

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Sheriff & Mayor 2020

Now that is a nice transition into the November races for 2020. The sheriff is likely to have an opponent on the Republican side in November. I by opponent, I mean sacrificial lamb. Whomever wins the Democratic Primary for Sheriff in March is going to stomp a mud hole in the Republican challenger in November. We've all seen this movie before, and that is how it always ends.

They get all excited and start with the "this is our year" chatter like a bunch of drunk Cowboy fans and then, much like the Cowboys, they are somehow shocked when they get trounced when I matters.

I did a lot of homework on the candidates for Sheriff, so I'm gonna stop here and let you know that the Sheriff piece is more in-depth and deserves its own post. There's some interesting stuff to consider in that race and its coming soon.

The mayor and city reps are up in November. Whoever was the dumbass that though moving the municipal races to November was a good idea deserves to be tarred and feathered and forced to eat nothing but shitty overrated hipster nachos from The Tap for a lifetime. It wasn't only a dumb idea, it actually is a major step backward policy wise. It doesn't improve voter participation as much as it ensures that the wealthy in this community have an even bigger influence on city politics.

Hall of Fame terrible idea. But City Reps Annello, Hernandez, Rivera, and Morgan will be up for reelection along with the the mayor.

So we all pretty much understand that they mayor is toast. Annello has at least two strong opponents waiting to announce, possibly three. Hernandez has one that I know of, but probably two opponents she'll be facing.

And its only June of 2019...we have a looooong way to go yet. Its gonna get really interesting this cycle.

(NOTE: There is a lot more to all of this and I'll do a more detailed analysis on several key races, but I'm posting this today in light of Rep Moody's email.)