Winners & Losers: District 1

Winner -

Obviously the big winner in the District 1 race was Veronica Frescas. The least-funded candidate beat out Rick Bonart who essentially self-funded his campaign. He also proved that you should never hire someone to do a job that they haven't demonstrated they have the ability to actually do.

There was probably a collective "Holy shit" exclaimed by people across the city when the numbers were published. Her performance shocked everyone and she alone deserves the credit.

This was the upset no one saw coming.

She made me look like a prophet when I wrote a couple months ago that she would surprise people, although I predicated it on her having a little money. She did it pretty much without any money and having absolutely no one to help her with her campaign but herself.

She was an army of one.

Roni was the first name on the ballot. She was the only Latina in the race. She, probably more than anyone else on the ballot, benefitted from the Beto Bump of turnout.

Losers -

Peter Svarzbein is in a run-off and whenever candidates are in run-offs they are dead meat. An incumbent in a run-off is a sign of candidate that has been rejected by voters and the anti-incumbent voters are usually the ones most likely to go back to the polls and vote out the incumbent.

Svarzbein needs to take a long hard look in the mirror and realize that there are a lot of people that don't have faith in him as a leader. He needs to realize that the run-off election is about one thing.

Its not about taxes. Its not about Duranguito. Its not about an arena, a trail, or contributions.

This run-off election is about Peter Svarzbein.

Its the reason there is a run-off and its frankly the only thing that can help him.

Svarzbein is frequently his own worst enemy. He's seen as immature, indecisive, and an unreliable vote on most issues.

Rick Bonart had name ID and a fat wallet. He blew a lot of money on David Saucedo. Seriously people look at the amount of money he spent and Saucedo's performance speaks for itself. Bonart is a good man and a good candidate. ANYONE should have been able to get Bonart into second place. Seriously, anyone. Rick Bonart is probably not going to run for another office now. Whats worse is that Grossman, true to form, didn't even wait until the body was cold before he was in Frescas' ear trying to make her his new candidate.

I don't consider Corral a loser in this scenario. He had no name ID, no base, and was outspent. By his own admission he had a team full of rookies. He performed about where you'd expect him to given those circumstances. He should have been smart enough to recruit talent to his team and it might have made him a little more competitive. But he's young and has time to run for something down the road, maybe even this seat once its open again.

Runoff

The runoff is in mid December, depending on the outcome of the D8 race. That could delay things because elections has a timeline they have to meet and since there are literally only a handful of votes that separate the two, it is still unclear as to who is going to be in the run-off.

But a run-off in this scenario is actually where Svarzbein has an advantage. Everything I said about Svarzbein being in trouble is true, but only to the extent that there is a field game in place to take advantage.

Frescas already made a huge, perhaps fatal mistake but running to Grossman's side. This election isn't about Duranguito. The voters have shown over and over its not an important issue to them. The courts have decided. Hanging on to this issue isn't going to win votes that weren't already going to anyone but Svarzbein.

Peter has the advantage in the run-off for a couple of reasons. One, since its a runoff election its a more predictable universe of voters. Peter has a ground game. He's got block walkers in place. They know who their support base is and they just have to execute their GOTV to get them back to the polls.

Frescas doesn't have any of that.

Svarzbein has money and the ability to get more of it. He needs funds to feed that field effort and it'll be there for him. The Jewish community has shown time and time again that they support Svarzbein and he'll get the financial support he needs.

Most of the good field people in town won't work with anyone associated with Grossman. He's a conservative extremist and they won't want to be anywhere near that guy, except maybe one person. IF I know that person like I think I know that person, they have or will be calling on Frescas very soon.

But they don't work for free. They will only work on that race if the price is right. Something tells me it'll happen.

Its a steep hill to climb for Frescas but it can be done.