Filing Deadline - What to Expect

In a few hours, the deadline to file for a place on the Democratic Primary ballot will pass. I've been at Democratic Party Headquarters for the last few days as people come in to file for their spot.

According to George Ybarra who is pretty much the day-to-day backbone of the Party, there are only about 4 candidates that have declared their candidacy that haven't actually filed yet, which is somewhat out of the norm.

So far everyone has come in writing checks, with two notable exceptions - Enrique Garcia who turned in 64 pages of signatures with a little over 520 verified signatures on them. Which is slightly more than he needs to get a place on the ballot. Its likely that there are more valid signatures, but I think they stopped counting once he hit the number, so that number could be as high as 600.

The other candidate to file with signatures was Kathryn Lucero. She only needed around 220, but she turned in about 33% more than the required number and they were gathered in less than a week. The other two candidates in the race, incumbent John Chatman and Lucilla Najera, had also been circulating petitions for a spot on the ballot but either couldn't get enough people to sign it, or they just changed their mind and paid the $1000 fee. Rumor has it that Lucero's campaign was able to get signatures from Chatman and Najera's own neighbors on her petitions.

Just kidding, its not a rumor, she did.

At this point, its unlikely that there will be any other surprise filings in the non-judicial races. I know people are really looking hard at what Leeser does, but I don't think he's gonna file for anything.

If there are any surprises, its gonna be in the judicial races. Here's the thing most people don't understand about last-minute filings...unless you are an incumbent, or Oscar Leeser, and you haven't started campaigning yet and file on the last day, you aren't going to win.

Hate to break it to you, but winnings takes a big investment in time and work. Sliding in the last minute makes it much more difficult (and expensive) to win.

Some other notable filings are the judicial candidates. Monique Velarde filed for the 210th District Court, but so far incumbent Gonzalo Garcia or GG has he is more commonly known, has not filed as of yet. I think he's the only incumbent that hasn't done so yet. So word around the courthouse is that he's not going to file for reelection and instead is going to take on Justice Gina Palafox for her seat on the Court of Appeals. I have no idea what on earth would make him want to do that, but he's really got an uphill battle taking on someone with her name ID. Also, it will be interesting to see when he actually files. Since he presumably has a court to run, it would have to be during lunch or after the work day.

I've tried to confirm the second half of the rumor but to no avail so far, but the other part of the rumor is that GG's niece Alyssa Perez will run for the seat he currently occupies in the event that he makes the jump. Perez previously ran against embattled Judge Luis Aguilar.

Speaking of Aguilar, with all the stuff hanging over his head right now, she's like easily defeat him this time. It makes more sense for her to take on an embattled incumbent and another male opponent than taking on a Latina candidate that is already a judge. The smart play is for her to take on Aguilar. From what I hear around the courthouse, people would probably throw money her way if she got in that race.

I also wouldn't rile out Mike Herrera throwing his hat in the ring to run for a District Court seat to get that extra retirement check. They have been talking about that happening for a couple of weeks now around the courthouse.

It'll be interesting to see if Judges Bonnie Rangel or Marcos Lizarraga end up with opponents. There was some talk over the weekend about candidates considering a stab at those two races. Rangel seems particularly vulnerable given that weird video that popped up recently.

Judges Dominguez, Chew, Anchondo, Kurita, Gamboa, and Alvarez won't likely get opponents. Judges Maria Salas Mendoza and Alex Gonzalez won't get opponents either. They are too well liked and in the case of Salas Mendoza, she's sitting on a big pile of campaign money. She had signs made in the event she drew an opponent and word is they are ready to be put up immediately should she actually draw an opponent. But seriously, she just introduced Dolores Huerta at a private fundraiser, who the hell is going to take on a popular Latina judge with street cred on this election cycle? Seriously, homegirl is from Riverside, went to Harvard, and has the most interesting life story you have never heard about. She overcame some serious hardship in high school.

The JP races to me are pretty interesting. JP3 is the seat held by Judge Aponte and she is retiring. That seat is coveted because its pretty much a marriage machine. JPs like doing weddings because they make a shit ton of money, keep it all, don't report any of it to commissioner's court, and none of it goes back to tax payers. That race has a basketball team size of field pursuing the seat. I'll interview them all and post video so you can make your choice if you live in that area.

As I said before, the JPs on the eastside and lower valley are have a problem on their hands. They are both incumbents and therefore can't afford to be away from their courts too much because they will get criticism from their opponents for it, who are most definitely making sure that it is business as usual at the courts. They are both facing two Latinas that have started early and each of the respective races have at least one campaign that knows what they are doing.

JP 6 is interesting if only for the fact that it is the only area with two Justices of the Peace. Judge Ruben Lujan isn't getting an opponent, but Nina Serna has two opponents and has yet to file.

The District Clerk and County Clerk probably aren't getting opponents, it looks like the candidate who was going to take on Favela is going to wait until next cycle and start early.

And finally circling back to the County Judge race, there is some talk that there may be a surprise entrance into that race, but like I said, its really hard to see how anyone short of an Oscar Leeser type candidate can get into the race and it be a meaningful effort.

I'll see what information I can get from the GOP and do a piece on their side of the ticket today.

Thats all for now, today is gonna be fun so follow me on Twitter to stay connected today for the new candidate filings throughout the day. Click here to follow me on Twitter. I'll be using the above hashtag.