Can She, Will She, Should She?

Probably.

Yes, if she has the legal authority to do so.

Hell no.

I'm speaking of the replacement vote for County Judge Veronica Escobar.

She sent out an email telling everyone that she has a big announcement coming. Unless you’re as stupid as David K is pretending to be, you know that its her announcement for her congressional bid that everyone knew was coming the minute Beto said he was running for Cruz’s seat. 

I answered the questions already but lets take a second to go through it shall we? 

***Can she vote for her replacement? ***

Well according to the Texas Holdover Clause, she probably has the authority to do so. She stays in place until there’s a replacement. 

Normally when there is a replacement that needs to be appointed on the Commissioner’s Court, its Escobar that makes the appointment. She’s done so a couple of times, first with Precinct 3 when Willie Gandara got caught being his own narcocorrido and she appointed Tanya Chozet, and the other time was upon the death of Commissioner Dan Haggerty when she appointed Ready, Willin’, and Abelyn. 

She’s always been pretty deliberate when she appoints the folks on the Court and she ALWAYS makes sure its someone that she can exert influence over - although Abelyn wasn’t as lock-step with the Judge as Chozet. 

Sometimes she gets ahead of herself in her fervor to appoint a new ally on the Court that she misses stuff like Chozet basically having no voting record before she was appointed and absolutely no voting history in the precinct she was appointed to represent. Seriously, she hadn’t even voted in a school board race. 

With the County Judge vacating though, it is up to the Court to decide on a replacement appointee. And in the past when the Court has had to make those replacements, like in the case of the Tax Assessor Collector, they were pretty deliberate in their process. 

Which leads to the next question - 

***Will she vote for her own replacement?***

You bet your ass she will. 

Escobar announcing her intent to run for Congress - and she knows it means she has to resign - means she is no longer focused on the County. Thats clear from her twitter feed. Seriously, she tweets more than Trump and its almost always some federal issue…IRONICALLY immigration of all things. 

But Escobar wants to leave the County in the hands of someone she can still influence. She wants to have her cake and eat it too. So not only do I expect that she will vote on her own replacement, I’ll bet money she’s gonna try to come out of the gate with a hand-picked successor. Someone she can have influence over, but not close enough that it looks like one of her pals, because she knows that would be a campaign liability for a congressional bid. 

And I’ll bet Commissioner Stout will be the main ally pushing Escobar’s pick. Why? 

Because David K is a dumbass, thats why.

David K is of the opinion that Escobar wants Susie Byrd to run against David Stout for his commissioner’s seat. David K is an idiot. Why would Escobar want someone who votes with her nearly 100% of the time off the Court?

Commissioner Stout is Escobar’s biggest ally on the Court. 

But running the county is personal for her. She helped shape the county into what it is today, so she takes a lot of criticism related to her time at the county personal.

Very personal, and the fact that it is personal for her is a leadership weakness in her. When you take things personally, you tend to make emotional decisions, which are never good. I think we see the ramification of impulsive and emotional decisions every time we turn on the TV these days. 

The next person to resign to run will be David Stout. 

He’s gonna run for County Judge and he knows he has to start soon. He knows that Samaniego is a weak candidate, but he knows he’s already started and Norma Chavez is consulting with Samaniego’s campaign. He knows Norma’s not stupid and she’s gonna go after Stout’s lack of accomplishment as a Commissioner. 

Seriously, what has he done other than deal with ducks and have a hard time getting the water situation at Ascarate taken care of? 

Norma happens to feel very strongly about ducks, but seriously…that mailer against Stout for County Judge writes itself. A dark image of Stout laughing with a big questions mark after the words, “What the duck has Stout done for you?”

Stout knows that Leon is the big dog sitting on the porch - unless Perez decides to run. Mayor Cook has a few controversial things hanging over his head like the stadium and that Marie Antoinette impersonation he made during the big freeze a few years ago when he was annoyed at getting questions about frozen pipes in El Paso while he was in San Antonio and he responded “I’m not your plumber”. 

People in areas of the County that lack basic resources and amenities aren’t exactly going to be warm to a guy that already expressed ambivalence during a crisis. 

Leon has run Countywide before. He’s got name ID. He can raise money. He has basically no drama. He’s likable. He’s managed big budget and he currently serves on the Court. 

And he’s demonstrated political courage by being willing to take a tough vote like expanding the clinics. 

So Stout is gonna resign to run for County Judge and Susie Byrd isn’t going to run against Stout. 

Do I think Susie Byrd will run for that seat someday? 

Yep, as sure as I am that the County Judge will vote for her own replacement. 

Someday. 

But it’s not going to be during this election cycle. Byrd is going to help Escobar. They are ride or die close friends. There’s no way either of them would run and not focus on the race 100% (to her credit I might add. Having a ride or die friend is never a bad thing). They never have before, why would they start now, especially now that Escobar is running for the biggest race and has the chance to be the first woman to represent El Paso in Congress?

***So now, SHOULD the County Judge vote for her own successor? ***

Hell to the no she shouldn’t. 

The big knock on Escobar is how controlling they perceive her to be. This would feed into that narrative of Escobar obsessively needing to be in control. 

Just because you CAN do something doesn’t me you SHOULD do something, and this is one of those times when I don’t think she should vote. 

If the County Judge is resigning she should learn to let go. The Commissioners should try to get a unanimous vote if possible, after all they are the ones that will have to work with the new County Judge until the people elect someone else. The Judge trying to influence her own successor will only harm the organization at a time when there is an opportunity for them to come together. Not allowing Commissioner's Court to unify around their own pick demonstrates that she doesn't trust them to make a big decision. If she is gonna resign to run for another job, then resign.

She will be announcing her congressional bid. She knows that means resigning as County Judge. So let the Court decide on who they want to lead in the interim. 

They are the ones that are NOT leaving their job to run for another one.