Why Jaime Esparza Faces Uphill Battle for Reelection

I don't know why this bothers so many people but the reality is that it is more likely than not that Jaime Esparza will lose reelection in the March primary.

Maybe people are sensitive because Esparza is probably the last of the "Old Guard" left in office. 

But let's face facts, this is going to be harder for him to win than any other race because the last few years haven't exactly been stellar for him.

He went from the heir-apparent to Congressman Reyes to a reelection race with two opponents, neither of whom are bat-shit crazy this time, one of whom is a Latina, more than 9 months out.

The Marmolejo case(which he personally argued), the Villegas case, and not putting a single witness on the stand against Gandara during the sentencing phase of his trial, those aren't exactly bright spots in his career.

He's gonna need more than DUIs and a domestic violence program. The public remembers big cases. The Gandara case alone is a targeted mailer to the valley waiting to happen.

Let's talk about some other facts. Most of the years he's served he's never had to really face tough competition. The number of career politicians that have run against real opposition in the last few years and ended up losing is now a punchline. 

Let me remind you, Theresa Caballero got 40% against him. 

Now he's facing Leonard Morales and Yvonne Rosales, both of whom have the ability to capture a significant number of voters. And that's assuming there will only be two challengers. If both challengers commit to a vigorous focus on a ground game and strategic mail program, they will most certainly force a run-off. 

Raise your hands if you know what happens to incumbents in runoffs?

That's right...they lose. Gold star for you.

Do I have to remind you that this is a Hillary election? Even if Hillary puts Bernie Sanders away early, it's still gonna be a spike in females voting. That gives Rosales a big boost.

So the challengers need to work consistently and do whatever they can to avoid being tied to Theresa Caballero or her FlyingMonkey and one of them makes a run-off.

Their biggest challenge?

The same as every other challenger...money.

Truth is they don't need as much money as Esparza and they should get used to the idea that they won't. But they do need enough to pay for mail and a ground game. That ain't cheap, especially in a countywide race.

Now if there was only a really rich person out there that had an ax to grind against the DA that might be willing to drop cash on one of their campaigns like a GI on ladies night at Teddy's, or as I like to call it "A Night at the Museum".

Oh wait...there happens to be one such individual. Mimbela.

He's the guy that has bankrolled Villegas. He's already donated to judges in the past, so it's a foregone conclusion that he'll be dropping some cash in this race.

The only real question is which opponent wins the Mimbela lottery.

Plus add to the fact that anytime you've been in office for two decades you've likely amassed a few enemies and are open to a change message.

So let's pause for a moment an address what some of you are probably thinking...it's no secret I won't be sending the District Attorney a Christmas card this year. 

But ask yourself something. Does that make any of the issues I mentioned any less true? 

Hell no and you know it.

So what does Esparza have to do? Well for starters he should remember that we are no longer in the 90's and he should not campaign by a committee full of old lawyers that haven't been part of a winning campaign since they had hair and the Fresh Prince of Bel Air was still on TV.

Dump the committee. They don't know what they are doing anyway. Get a campaign team with three things. A good field person, a good message person for mail, and a core group of block walkers. 

Judge Escobar found herself in a similar position. She had to work her butt off to avoid a run-off and none of Esparza's challengers are as unpopular as Eddie Holguin or a gaffe-machine like Apodaca.

Esparza has to take advantage of his biggest strengths, name ID and money. He's gotta make that money and spend it correctly.

So Esparza has to take this race seriously and work hard over a long period of time.

But I don't see it happening and I don't see him not sticking to the old guard way of campaigning.  

It's early, anything can happen. But how often does "anything can happen" benefit an incumbent?