Yet Another Candidate Files for District 1
Like I said a while back, the field for District 1 is the size of a small kindergarten class. A new candidate filed papers yesterday. His name is Daniel Lopez. I know zero about him and have never met him. But at some point I'll interview all the candidates in the race. Even the ones that don't want me to like Manny Hinojosa.
But yesterday someone commented on the piece I did about District 1 and asked me a few good questions that I answered but I think I'll go ahead and address here, especially because David K writes a very entertaining piece about Peter Svarzbein on his blog yesterday. You can find it here.
The person who commented wanted to know why I refered to Richard Bonart as Susie Byrd's candidate, why I thought Svarzbein has a shot at the run-off, and who do I see as winning the race and why.
So let me break it down for you.
As far as the Susie Byrd thing goes, I guess I could've called Bonart David K's mom's candidate too because she's his treasurer. Either way I guess neither characterization is really far. Bonart is his own candidate. I mentioned Susie because she's helping his campaign and introduced him at his campaign kickoff event. Susie Byrd is the only, and I repeat only, reason that he has a shot at making the run-off.
DK doesn't like Svarzbein for whatever reason but I can pretty confidently say it has nothing to do with his mom. Mrs K is a very nice lady and everyone usually wonders how a lady that nice lady could be David K's mom. My mother gets the same questions about me. If you read David K's stuff he's been pretty critical of Bonart. Actually far more so than any one else. David K's really the only
one who had him in his radar.
Now here is where DK and I are going to differ. I think everything another candidate gets in the race the more it helps Svarzbein and Bonart. They are the only two candidates that have, or will have, anything that resembles and effective ground game. When you have a crowded field of candidates, voters are going to go with the names they are most familiar with. Since there are no household names in the race (Don't say Weisenberger is because he isn't), then the names they are going to be the most familiar with are going to be the ones that make contact with the voter. If you don't get that, then you don't understand how campaigns work.
Let's not forget the general trend in voting in El Paso either, all things being equal El Pasoans typically select the younger, more progressive candidate. So in that case, the advantage is to the Class A Milenial. That being said, one of the last times there was an election that bucked that trend was when Ann Morgan Lilly was reelected to that position.
As far as the way Svarzbein filed, I think it's DK trying to make a spark catch fire. No matter how hard you fan those flames, Svarzbein didn't do anything illegal. I don't know why he filed the way that he did and it seems stupid to me, but it's not like he broke the law or anything. You're allowed to file that way. And let's be real, voters don't know/understand/give two shits how someone files their financials unless a law was broken.
Who do I think will win? Way too early to say. I think Bonart and Svarzbein have the best shot today. That could change. But right now Bonart has Susie Byrd and Svarzbein is the only candidate that has actually been campaigning.
Bertha Gallegos has an uphill battle but she could be a big factor. She has to introduce herself to voters, but if she can raise money she might do well. Weisenberger is not the next Oscar Leeser. he's not a household name and unless he's willingr to dump a lot of money in the race I don't see him making too much noise. I think as of today they are your second tier candidates and both could make themselves top-tier candidates very easily. Their biggest problem is getting in the races so late.
More to come
But yesterday someone commented on the piece I did about District 1 and asked me a few good questions that I answered but I think I'll go ahead and address here, especially because David K writes a very entertaining piece about Peter Svarzbein on his blog yesterday. You can find it here.
The person who commented wanted to know why I refered to Richard Bonart as Susie Byrd's candidate, why I thought Svarzbein has a shot at the run-off, and who do I see as winning the race and why.
So let me break it down for you.
As far as the Susie Byrd thing goes, I guess I could've called Bonart David K's mom's candidate too because she's his treasurer. Either way I guess neither characterization is really far. Bonart is his own candidate. I mentioned Susie because she's helping his campaign and introduced him at his campaign kickoff event. Susie Byrd is the only, and I repeat only, reason that he has a shot at making the run-off.
DK doesn't like Svarzbein for whatever reason but I can pretty confidently say it has nothing to do with his mom. Mrs K is a very nice lady and everyone usually wonders how a lady that nice lady could be David K's mom. My mother gets the same questions about me. If you read David K's stuff he's been pretty critical of Bonart. Actually far more so than any one else. David K's really the only
one who had him in his radar.
Now here is where DK and I are going to differ. I think everything another candidate gets in the race the more it helps Svarzbein and Bonart. They are the only two candidates that have, or will have, anything that resembles and effective ground game. When you have a crowded field of candidates, voters are going to go with the names they are most familiar with. Since there are no household names in the race (Don't say Weisenberger is because he isn't), then the names they are going to be the most familiar with are going to be the ones that make contact with the voter. If you don't get that, then you don't understand how campaigns work.
Let's not forget the general trend in voting in El Paso either, all things being equal El Pasoans typically select the younger, more progressive candidate. So in that case, the advantage is to the Class A Milenial. That being said, one of the last times there was an election that bucked that trend was when Ann Morgan Lilly was reelected to that position.
As far as the way Svarzbein filed, I think it's DK trying to make a spark catch fire. No matter how hard you fan those flames, Svarzbein didn't do anything illegal. I don't know why he filed the way that he did and it seems stupid to me, but it's not like he broke the law or anything. You're allowed to file that way. And let's be real, voters don't know/understand/give two shits how someone files their financials unless a law was broken.
Who do I think will win? Way too early to say. I think Bonart and Svarzbein have the best shot today. That could change. But right now Bonart has Susie Byrd and Svarzbein is the only candidate that has actually been campaigning.
Bertha Gallegos has an uphill battle but she could be a big factor. She has to introduce herself to voters, but if she can raise money she might do well. Weisenberger is not the next Oscar Leeser. he's not a household name and unless he's willingr to dump a lot of money in the race I don't see him making too much noise. I think as of today they are your second tier candidates and both could make themselves top-tier candidates very easily. Their biggest problem is getting in the races so late.
More to come
Comments
Post a Comment
We encourage constructive community dialogue, debate, and conversation - but we reserve the right to refuse to publish a comment or delete a comment if we feel like it. Be a respectful adult. Use common sense.