So What Happens When Senator Rodriguez Moves On?

So that buzz around town is that Senator Rodriguez may be on his last ride in Austin. Whether or not that is actually true remains to be seen but it will no doubt create another shuffling of the deck.

Who wants the job most? Probably State Representative Marisa Marquez. The Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR) will likely make it rain on her should she make the bid for the seat.

If she runs, it will leave her seat open. I'm sure a myriad of candidates will line up for that job. I'm not convinced that she's the only member of the delegation what will take a stab at the seat either.

Rookie mistake.

Here's the thing about state representatives. As much as they hate to hear it, they have less influence with the electorate than a member of city council. Thats not an exaggeration either.

Think about it, state reps run every two years and since the session only meets once every two years, they are really only relevant once every two years.

Members of city council, or commissioners court for that matter, are relevant every week. Thats why state reps are always so hungry for media attention, because they don't get it often.

Another disadvantage a state rep has for pursuing a Senate seat is the fact that they run in districts. The Senate seat is actually slightly larger than countywide. Someone who is a known commodity to voters countywide has a much better shot at winning the race than say Marquez.

Here's what I mean, people who have run citywide or county wide already understand how much more difficult it is, and more expensive, to run a race on a larger scale. So someone like Marquez would certainly have a lot of money, but there are other leaders in town that could and would raise big money on their own.

To say nothing of the fact that the Texas Trial Lawyers Association (TTLA) isn't going to just sit around and let their Republican adversaries (TLR) gift wrap a race for Marquez.

And lets be real, Marquez has gotten by because she always (very smartly I might add) takes on weak opponents.

The reality is the TTLA is probably going to find a female candidate, one who probably already has the ability to raise a ton of local money, something Marquez doesn't really do, dump a lot of money on the candidate, and make sure its a candidate that can win in an area larger than a state rep district.

In that scenario it would be difficult to see how Marquez would be a viable candidate.

Especially if she runs into a candidate that can leverage a message better than her previous opponents have. She escaped the wrath of voters for supporting Dee Margo over Joe Moody in a district race, but in a very partisan countywide race, a Democratic primary would be even more difficult. Especially now that Margo is even less popular than before. Any candidate worth a damn is going to hang him around her neck like a boat anchor.

Plus, she's running out of teams to be on. Norma Chavez elected her but not before Marquez had pissed off so many members of her own campaign team that they ditched her on Election Day. Then she ditched Norma.

She ran to the progressive crowd, but well that doesn't look like its working out for her anymore. She really has put herself on an island. Just her one other elected official. Its getting lonely out there...

More on other prospects soon...