Election Predictions

Rather than give endorsements let me make a few predictions. You know the deal, just because I think an outcome might turn out a certain way doesn't mean I want it to or that I endorse anyone.

US Senator: Cornyn easily wins re-election. This is Texas, if they won't vote for a Latino, they aren't voting for Alameel.

US Congress District 16: Beto O'Rourke handily defeats Roen and Perez. The only question is whether or not Perez will break 3% of the vote. Roen will inherit all the angry white guy vote, but still will be a distant 2nd.

US Congress District 23: Gallego breaks the Gubernatorial year curse and pulls out a win. Its really hard for even insane Republicans to paint him as a flaming liberal because he isn't. The vato didn't get elected all those years in an area where Democrats don't particularly perform will in elections by accident. And when he does win, its going to be a sign that HD 23 is no longer in play for the Republicans.

Governor: Greg Abbott. I can't believe that guy is going to be our next governor. How many times do we have to elect people like him in Texas before we realize we are shooting our own foot? Democratic turnout is terrible and the TDP did a terrible job of messaging. They should've defined him on his hypocrisy relating to tort reform early and painted him into a corner. I voted for Wendy Davis.

Lt. Governor: Anyone who says there is going to be a split ticket apparently doesn't actually study elections. There will be no split ticket. Unbelievably Patrick will win. And then crazy will be on full display. I'm down with LVP and voted for her.

Republicans will sweep the other statewide offices. There's no reason to believe that any one particular Democrat will outperform the rest of the field. If David and LVP can't do it, no one else will either.

HD 76: Cesar Blanco. Seriously, anyone who thinks Lozano is going to get any significant amount of the vote is insane. The Times was right, he's completely unqualified for the position. Zero depth in terms of policy knowledge. He's a talking-points machine. What is incredible is that he was ever elected to office. Pretty scary that he was based on his qualifications.

HD 77: Marisa Marquez. I didn't even know she had an opponent until a couple weeks ago. But even he is smart enough not to run as a Republican. Marquez blows him out of the water anyway.

District Clerk / County Clerk: Both of these races are over in the Democratic Primary. Favela and Briones cruise to victory against unqualified opponents who know nothing of the offices they are seeking. But for funsies, lets pick who of the two opponents will have more of the vote. Richard Gonzalez, the Republican challenger for County Clerk will get significantly more votes than Manny Hinojosa, Libertarian candidate for District Clerk.

Now to the races that are actually close, County Commissioner Precinct 4 and JP 7.

Commissioner 4: Julio Diaz

Low voter turnout really makes it difficult to definitively say that either of the Democrats will pull off the upset. There are a million things that Julio Diaz should've been called out on. He's made this campaign about veterans issues when its not a county function. He (brilliantly) made that move to capitalize on his military service. He really holds that over the head Andrew Haggerty, the Republican opponent.

If his uncle Dan were still alive, Diaz would be stupid for making the election about veterans issues. Dan served in all branches of the military and probably would call out Julio for the fact that his service isn't active duty. He's a reservist, ROTC officer, with an HR job. As often as he posts pictures of himself in uniform you'd think the vato was Rambo himself, instead of the truth, which is Diaz is in a Public Affairs unit, not an Infantry Battalion. He's Chairborne, not Airborne. He's in the rear with the gear.

The county does little to nothing for veterans and essentially has no role in the issue. But veterans remember when you promise something, so Diaz better come out with something significant for them if he wins.

The fact that Diaz has a paperwork job in his reserve capacity is actually all the more reason why Haggerty's critique of Diaz's inability to comply with campaign finance reporting rules all the more credible. On the one hand Diaz touts his military service as an HR guy, but when called out for not having "attention to detail" as we used to say in the Army, his defense is that he's "not perfect" and its his "first time running for office". It was also the first time either his primary or general election opponents ran as well and they managed to get it right.

Pictures of Diaz with Republican Dee Margo at an Open House event at his office following his victory over State Rep Joe Moody have bothered a lot of Democrats within the Party and called into question his credentials as a Democrat. His campaign manager's experience has pretty much just been running campaigns in Mexico for PAN candidates. For those of you not familiar with Mexican politics, PAN is pretty much the GOP of Mexico. He's also published statements that include language that further undermines the confidence of Demo Party regulars like working hard regardless of party affiliations. Frankly those statements are harmless and I'd like to think all elected officials work that way, but nonetheless it bothers the Party blue hairs.

Diaz has a certain Hector H. Lopez quality about his campaign that you can't miss. He sounds like he thinks he's leading some sort of movement rather running for County Commissioner. He also has the large campaign staff with grandiose titles. Lots of flighty rhetoric but very light on actual substantive positions on issues.

Even with all those obvious vulnerabilities - even with low voter turn-out - and even though he's running against a Haggerty who wants to replace another Haggerty with nearly saint-like status on the Westside, I still think Julio Diaz pulls it off the upset.

Diaz has been a workhorse on the campaign trail. He's knocked on a lot of doors. He's darker and thinner than when he first started the campaign. Diaz did what you're supposed to do when you're in a campaign or street fight, he committed himself fully to the effort. That one-on-one connection is vital to ensuring the ability to over come the vulnerabilities he has a candidate. He benefited from the fact that he never really had to deal with a sharp attack or critique against his qualifications. Had either of his opponents done so, Diaz wouldn't be in the driver's seat right now. Barring some MAJOR development in the next couple of hours, Diaz wins.

And don't be mistaken, its actually a pretty major defeat for the Republicans if Diaz pulls it off. The Precinct 4 seat is really the only seat in the county left where Republicans have a meaningful influence on public policy. That will be gone soon unless the low voter turnout helps out Haggerty. There's no way Diaz should've been competitive in this race. He has a thick accent, he doesn't have deep roots in the community and he's open to critiques about his business and arrest records. He's Latino going against the most storied political family in El Paso. A Haggerty has represented constituents in the northeast and westside at every level of government except the federal level. A Haggerty has been a school board trustee, Justice of the Peace, Constable, City Rep, State Rep, and Constable. A Diaz victory means he overcame all of that to win - mostly through sheer will power. If he wins, it will mark the most significant win on Commissioner's Court since Anthony Cobos defeated Barbara Perez.

Justice of the Peace #7: Sergio Coronado

JP 7 is even harder to judge and could very well likely be even closer. But the fact that Sergio Coronado has a demonstrated base of support out on the westside is just one of the factor that will give him the edge. He also has pretty significant advantage in name ID since he ran for County Judge not too long ago.

Coronado still practices law and so he doesn't have as much time to devote to campaigning as Dickson who is retired.

The down-ballot races are always hard to call and recent JP and commissioner's court elections have been razor thin, so it wouldn't surprise me terribly if the Republicans held on to both seats. But for much the same reasons I think the Republicans will run the table on the statewide races, I think what happens to one Democrat on the westside will happen to the other.

Remember that less than 50 votes separated incumbent Sergio Lewis and challenger David Stout when Lewis was defeated by Stout earlier this year. Also in the Democratic Primary, Jesus Urenda made the run-off election by ONE vote. He went on to trounce the incumbent Barbara Perez in the run-off election.

Both westside seats are wide-open with no incumbent. Normally when the early voting numbers come in its a pretty good indicator of who is going to carry the night. Tomorrow night won't be that way. Neither of the westside races will be decided until the last votes are counted.

Its gonna be a long night on the westside.