Commissioner 4 Debate Summary

You all know I'm a Democrat so I'm sure you'll take this post with a grain of salt but I'll be as objective as I can on this one.

In terms of performance in the debate hosted by the West El Paso Republican Women I think you'd have to give a slight edge to Julio Diaz, the Democrat.

Both candidates surprised me with the depth of their knowledge of county policy and issues. Haggerty showed that he's running on more than just a storied family name. Diaz showed that he's more than just a pretty face.

If the question is who impressed me more, then hands down I'd have to say Andrew Haggerty. Clearly young Andrew could use some polishing. He's a little unpolished and probably a little more blunt than he should be, but he wouldn't be a Haggerty if he wasn't.

Haggerty came out with a very sharp message about Diaz that he's been open to since the primary. Haggerty basically used Diaz's own message against him. Diaz has spoken about ending the culture of corruption and ethics, etc. Haggerty pounced on that in front of what should've been a friendly crowd save for the fact that Julio showed up with a huge entourage and a campaign staff larger than I've seen for congressional candidates.

He reminds me a little of Hector H. Lopez in that way, but I'll get to that later.

Photo taken from Diaz campaign FB page

Haggerty mentioned Diaz's “multiple run-ins with the law” and Diaz's business that is “near failure”. I went back and looked at the video and Diaz was clearly annoyed by the fact that Haggerty raised those two issues. I was going to post a screen shot from the video to illustrate my point, but this photo from Diaz's campaign team actually does more justice to it than the screen shot I was going to use. 

There is a mugshot of Diaz floating around. His primary opponent used it in social media and in a mailer so he was clearly arrested and booked for something.

But when it was Diaz's turn to speak he practically leaped out of his seat to get to the microphone.

Diaz was ready with a response that was right on the edge of political brilliance. Until he may have erred. 

Diaz responded by saying that he had “no felonies...no misdemeanors...but what I do have is a security clearance...” from the military.

That was a pretty good answer and he should've stopped there. But like anyone who is uncomfortable with a topic, he kept going and he made a comment that has the potential to be the turning point in the race.

Diaz added, “I have no criminal record.” What he should've said was that he's never been convicted of a crime. But that's not what he said.

Its going to be hard for a voter to take Diaz seriously with a statement like that if there's a mug shot floating around of him. If Haggerty puts that quote on a piece of mail along with Diaz's mugshot, its really going to hurt Diaz.

I don't know if Haggerty even has the time, talent, or resources to put a piece like that together considering early voting started Monday, but that statement has the potential to be a game-changer.

Diaz never really addressed the state of his business. But I was extremely impressed by Diaz's discipline of staying on message. If he didn't mention the fact that he has military experience in every answer it sure as hell felt like it.

The rest of the debate was the two trading positions about public policy that pretty much followed party lines. Haggerty talked a lot about smaller government and the budget. Diaz used the phrase “fiscal conservative” several times but spoke like a liberal Democrat on most policy issues. He fiercely defended the clinic votes and did so better than most members of commissioners court frankly. He clearly knows that issue inside and out and will eat anybody's lunch on the topic. He was absolutely brilliant on that issue.

But in Haggerty's opening remarks he touched on something I didn't catch at first but as the debate went on I started to notice he was right. Haggerty implored the audience to hold them accountable in answering questions. I'm pretty sure he did that because he knows Diaz takes a long time to get to a point and is often unresponsive in his answers.

Haggerty impressed me with his prosecution of Diaz. He talked about trust and said that the county doesn't need another mug shot. He also stayed on Diaz about a quote he made about the Ethics Commission. Haggerty mentioned that Diaz praised the creation of the Ethics Commission but that he'd been out of compliance with several ethics issues including filing his campaign finance reports late, accepting corporate contributions, note reporting the big dollars to commissioner's court, and filing the report improperly.

Perhaps in response to Haggerty's prosecution Diaz mentioned that he's “...not perfect...” several times and said that only God is.

Diaz scored with a sharp line about Haggerty's lack of military experience and Diaz's entourage celebrated when he dropped the line on Haggerty. One of Diaz's campaign staffers actually did a fist-pump so it was obviously a line they've been wanting to use for a while.

Diaz stayed on the military stuff pretty much the entire debate which made me chuckle to myself for a variety of reasons that I'll explain in another post, but I'll explain one of the reasons here.

Diaz went to ROTC and is a officer in the reserves. He's in a public affairs unit. But he's in charge of S-1, which means he's basically in charge of personnel issues. In other words, he's in charge of paperwork. He has a degree in political science.

I know when I was in the Army, they hammered home a little thing called “attention to detail”. It surprises me that a guy who, as Haggerty put it, “has a degree in campaigning” and touts his military paperwork experience, would make a mistake on campaign paperwork. Apparently on more than one occasion.

In terms of the debate performance I'd have to give the edge to Julio Diaz. He's very well packaged. He has deeper policy knowledge than I expected despite the fact that he takes to long to answer a question if he answers it at all. He also does his best not to answer questions that might get him in trouble and that takes discipline. I think he needs to make sure that his campaign staff don't become a distraction. Campaign staff, if they are doing a good job, are usually seen and not heard. If even seen at all. His campaign manager stood behind me during my post-fight interview with Diaz and signaled him a couple of times.

Haggerty did well. He didn't lose, he just didn't come across as well as Diaz. Haggerty has to have a sense of urgency about him. Diaz appears to be running a solid ground game, which hasn't been done by a Democratic candidate in that race before.

There were several moments in the debate when the two went after each other that made me say "Zas!", so it was pretty entertaining. 

The X Factor

What makes this race a perfect storm for the Democrats is the fact that Diaz is a more formidable candidate than expected in terms of the mechanics of an election. There is also a major issue on the GOP side.

There is no Republican state rep candidate on the ballot so there is no outside money being pumped in to push the GOP turnout. To add to Haggerty's worries is the significant number of undervotes that race has. Haggerty can't afford to have 2,000 people go to the polls and not vote for him in a tight race. So if there is a big push for the GOP to turnout, its going to be up to young Mr. Haggerty to make it happen. I think if the election were held today, he'd lose. If he doesn't call the rest of the family off the bench to pitch-in, Diaz is going to pull the upset.