Checkmate! Perez Stuns Quintanilla (and everyone else)

Long-time State Representative Innocente “Chente” Quintanilla was soundly defeated Tuesday by Vince Perez in the Democratic run-off election for El Paso County Commissioner Precinct #3.

Perez defeated Quintanilla by more than 13%, which in political terms, is a big win. Especially when you consider the context. Quintanilla was for all intents and purposes an incumbent. A 13%+ victory over an incumbent is a huge victory.

Before other voices start whining about the results, let me just lay it out for you. Last night was the ultimate story of the underdog.

By conventional thinking, Vince Perez was not supposed to win. He was supposed to lose and lose big.

Quintanilla had every single advantage possible and was still solidly thumped by Perez. So before people start rolling out excuses, lets face the facts. The people of Precinct 3 spoke loudly last night. The people chose Vince Perez to be the next County Commissioner of Precinct #3.

Chente had more money. Actually, LOTS more money. (It was surprising to me how much money Quintanilla raised and how much it was downplayed)

Chente had more name ID.

Chente had more political connections.

Chente was basically an incumbent.

Chente had been elected by a significant portion of Precinct 3 several times.

Chente had more signs.

Chente had an experienced family of campaigners.

Chente had the establishment and “Old Guard” behind him.

Chente had support of other candidates.

And by contrast, Perez faced almost every disadvantage a candidate could come across.

He didn't speak Spanish (although he understands it completely and now he's speaking it with more confidence than before).

He didn't have a politically connected family.

He didn't raise anywhere near as much money as his opponent.

Perez didn't come from the rural part of the valley.

The Sheriff's Officer's Association spent a significant amount of money trying to defeat Perez in both the Primary and Run-off Elections. Despite the fact that Perez' dad is a long-time law enforcement officer. (So much for brotherhood.)

He was told by the Congressman's campaign team not to run in the first place.

The Congressman endorsed his opponent Willie Gandara. Then key Congressional staffers were supportive of Dora Oaxaca, another opponent. And then the final knife in the back...

The Congressman, through his PAC, relatives, and a staffer, was one of, if not the biggest, single contributor to Chente Quintanilla's campaign. And yet they complained about “loyalty”.

In fact, this race actually crystallizes a potentially tainted legacy of Reyes. The out-going Congressman took contributions from the Gandara's and to my knowledge hasn't returned the money yet. Then he turned around and invested a large sum of political contributions in failed leadership when he contributed to Quintanilla over his own former staffer.

Yet despite having just about every political obstacle in his way, Perez trounced his opponent. And Perez beat his opponent soundly in just about every single way possible.

Perez is much better at messaging. Some detractors may whine about “negative campaigning” but the fact is Quintanilla was going to hang his hat on his experience and his track record. Perez prosecuted him on it. Perez played offense and made Quintanilla play defense the whole time.

Remember the look of opponents of a young Mike Tyson? They would talk big until they got in the ring and then they would be overwhelmed by the offense of Iron Mike? It reminds me a lot of how Quintanilla was always on the defensive in the campaign.

Quintanilla was in over his head with Perez and completely overwhelmed.

Perez, with the help of his boy-genius campaign manager Jose Landeros, also won with a more solid campaign strategy. The two poured over any piece of related data they could find and analyzed and re-analyzed the data. They made changes in variables and analyzed some more. There were charts and tables all over the place and the two would stare at it for hours on end and would finally develop a voter targeting strategy that was deadly.

Not bad for two young guys who had never actually run a campaign before. 

Actually, their targeting was more like micro-targeting. They created classifications for voters that never existed before. They created their own campaign literature with a refined message designed to strike a cord with their targets. They even micro-targeted their campaign literature and customized it for specific voters in specific areas.

And then they took their data and their analysis and they hit the streets. They block-walked and phone-banked with a tenacious pace. In the cold of the winter and in the heat of the summer. And then they would take the data from the day's walking and do more analysis and tweaking.

The perfect mix of old-school grassroots campaigning and sophisticated data analysis. The result was a huge margin of victory and the most impressive campaign win.

More so than any other hotly contested race I can remember in town recently. Think about some of the big main-event type races in town recently.

- Beto O'Rourke won by about 6% of the vote when he defeated Congressman Silvestre Reyes. 

- State Rep Naomi Gonzalez defeated Norma Chavez by just 5% of the vote in a run-off election.

- State Rep Marisa Marquez defeated Paul Moreno by just a 3% margin of victory.

But Perez trounced Quintanilla by nearly 14%. If there is a bigger margin of victory in a hotly contested race then I sure can't think of it (and judicial races don't count because, well they are judicial races).

Analysis of the final results show that Vince Perez carried the barrios of the district. He won Bel Air, Del Valley and Ysleta-area precincts pretty handily. He also won Horizon City and most of Socorro. The Socorro vote was the most impressive because no one thought Perez could win in Dora Oaxaca and Chente Quintanilla's back yard. But Vince won key precincts in Socorro like Precinct 161 (Robert Rojas), 162 (Socorro High), 164 (Escontrias), and 165 (Campestre) by good margins of at least 55% of the vote or better. 

The only areas he lost were the small rural parts of the Precinct.

Perez made a key late-week adjustment during early voting that was the reason he ended up with a lead when the early voting numbers were released. Again, the adjustment was because of data analysis and was an educated gamble that was affectionately dubbed “pulling the goalie”.

That move proved to be CHECKMATE.

Perez's election night result-watching event was held in his home turf of the Bel Air area. The area supported their Highlander and it was fitting that the 2000 Bel Air grad entered the event to the sound of bag pipe music followed by mariachi music.

Despite the joy of the crowd of family and supporters, Perez remained focused on the job ahead of him. Perez stated earlier today, “...its not about celebration. Its about the work and we are approaching this with a high degree of humility.”

In his remarks to his supporters following the final numbers, Perez spoke about the people he met along the way and the problems the Precinct faces. He spoke about how he was moved by a block-walking experience in Montana Vista when he and Landeros visited a woman who was reluctant to open the door. After they spoke with her it turns out she was afraid to open the door because she thought the duo might have been from the electric company and there to turn off her lights.

Perez expressed how that conversation stayed with him and how her experience put things in perspective.

Make no mistake, the Perez victory was the most dramatic political victories in El Paso in recent memory. Most of the time it was just Perez and Landeros and some help from Perez's parents. But toward the end and in the run-off, the Perez campaign swelled to about 6 committed volunteers. Most of them in their 20's and only two of them in their 30's, one of whom was Perez.

They didn't have the endorsement of many organizations, a team of hot-shot consultants, or an arsenal of campaign funds. Hell, they WERE the hot shots.

And they pulled off a win they weren't supposed to be able to win. And since it was just Perez, Landeros, some family and some committed volunteers, they pulled off the dramatic win without having to “owe” any special interests or groups.

Later I'll write more about the stories behind the win. There were some great stories and some great young and talented people involved and its a story no one else will tell.

So in conclusion, think about this.

I wrote on July 18^ththat Quintanilla was Goliath and Perez was David and that Goliath better check David's pockets for rocks and a sling-shot.

Goliath has a pretty bad head-ache now.

This is why I love politics.

Because sometimes the underdog wins.

Nobody thought a young confident Cassius Clay could beat the indestructible Sonny Liston.

And until a few minutes after 7pm last night, very few thought that a young skinny kid from Bel Air who went to Georgetown could beat a 5-term, well-funded, career politician from the valley either.

Rumble young man, rumble.