El Paso to Play Critical Role in CD 23 Run-Off
One of the things that doesn't really get talked about much in local coverage of elections is the fact that the valley is going to play a big part in that race.
Roughly speaking the district is sort of a half-moon around San Antonio and goes through rural west Texas until El Paso County. In the County the district pretty much runs south of the freeway to Zaragoza.
Gallegos did well in rural west Texas and Rodriguez cleaned house in San Antonio. Thats pretty predictable because they are each essentially holding their base of support. The voters know them in those areas. That makes El Paso the battle ground because its a whole new crop of voters that weren't previously in the district.
I wrote a while back that I had a hunch that Ciro Rodriguez was going to take El Paso County and he did. It wasn't solid analysis, it was just a hunch. My theory was that people in passing would have a slightly higher amount of familiarity for Ciro Rodriguez because he represented part of El Paso previously, though it was another part of the County.
I still think that's basically true.
Which means that despite not doing well in the primary against Rodriguez in El Paso, I still think its possible for Gallego to flip the County. Its not going to be easy and Ciro Rodriguez commands some pretty good advantages over Gallego, but its doable. Its going to take an AGGRESSIVE ground approach for him to pull it off in the run-off.
I don't know how much, if anything at all, either campaign spent in El Paso County in the primary. It wouldn't surprise me if they spent very little because its an unknown part of the district. When you have limited resources they are typically spent on the population they can identify as predictable voters.
And there is the quirk of Fabens. You can't really cut turf (inside baseball political term, it means identifying the targeted voters, their addresses and then mapping them for a block walker) for the Fabens area due to a quirk in data. Makes things a big challenge.
The district is a swing district and the term is almost literal in the 23rd. By the way the numbers are now, a generic Democrat can win in November, but will likely lose two years later in a gubernatorial election because the Republicans come out in higher proportions.
Gallego represents the best chance of keeping the seat for Democrats. Gallego's legislative district is Republican, but he has been elected over and over because he is able to pull support from Republicans. If he were the Congressman of the 23rd district of Texas then it stands to reason that the Democrats could hold that seat in gubernatorial years.
But he has to win the run-off first. That means he has to develop an aggressive El Paso County plan because it just might be the margin of victory. There are only so many voters that reliably come out for elections. Even less for run-offs.
Whoever takes El Paso County will probably be the next Congressman from the 23rd.
Roughly speaking the district is sort of a half-moon around San Antonio and goes through rural west Texas until El Paso County. In the County the district pretty much runs south of the freeway to Zaragoza.
Gallegos did well in rural west Texas and Rodriguez cleaned house in San Antonio. Thats pretty predictable because they are each essentially holding their base of support. The voters know them in those areas. That makes El Paso the battle ground because its a whole new crop of voters that weren't previously in the district.
I wrote a while back that I had a hunch that Ciro Rodriguez was going to take El Paso County and he did. It wasn't solid analysis, it was just a hunch. My theory was that people in passing would have a slightly higher amount of familiarity for Ciro Rodriguez because he represented part of El Paso previously, though it was another part of the County.
I still think that's basically true.
Which means that despite not doing well in the primary against Rodriguez in El Paso, I still think its possible for Gallego to flip the County. Its not going to be easy and Ciro Rodriguez commands some pretty good advantages over Gallego, but its doable. Its going to take an AGGRESSIVE ground approach for him to pull it off in the run-off.
I don't know how much, if anything at all, either campaign spent in El Paso County in the primary. It wouldn't surprise me if they spent very little because its an unknown part of the district. When you have limited resources they are typically spent on the population they can identify as predictable voters.
And there is the quirk of Fabens. You can't really cut turf (inside baseball political term, it means identifying the targeted voters, their addresses and then mapping them for a block walker) for the Fabens area due to a quirk in data. Makes things a big challenge.
The district is a swing district and the term is almost literal in the 23rd. By the way the numbers are now, a generic Democrat can win in November, but will likely lose two years later in a gubernatorial election because the Republicans come out in higher proportions.
Gallego represents the best chance of keeping the seat for Democrats. Gallego's legislative district is Republican, but he has been elected over and over because he is able to pull support from Republicans. If he were the Congressman of the 23rd district of Texas then it stands to reason that the Democrats could hold that seat in gubernatorial years.
But he has to win the run-off first. That means he has to develop an aggressive El Paso County plan because it just might be the margin of victory. There are only so many voters that reliably come out for elections. Even less for run-offs.
Whoever takes El Paso County will probably be the next Congressman from the 23rd.
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