My Guesses on Early Voting Results

This is just my take on how early voting will go down. And since elections are pretty much over on early voting, this is what I think will be the results.

These aren't endorsements. No one is helped by my endorsement and there is not a soul on this planet that makes a decision about who they are going to vote for based on what I write.

Congress District 23 - I think this race is between Ciro Rodriguez and Pete Gallego in El Paso County. I think Ciro squeaks out ahead in El Paso County but I am not real firm on that one. Best guess.

Congress District 16 - This race is a hell of a lot closer than people think. Its a low voter turnout race because its the day after Memorial Day and the election has been moved, etc. So in a low voter turn-out race, I think Reyes also eeks out a narrow victory over O'Rourke. And by narrow, I mean single digits.

Looks like I'm gonna have to pay up on a bet too.

I know the media will make this look Reyes is going to lose, but I think he's going to pull it out. If he does, Reyes should thank two people.

Luis Torres and Morris Pittle.

Luis for stepping in and being the Congressman's go-to surrogate. Torres has been truly entertaining to watch up against O'Rourke. Beto is a masterful debater and to watch the two tangle on issues has been a lot of fun for a wonk like me.

Pittle for re-packaging the Congressman.

Clinton coming in to town, Yarborough bridge, etc. all line up to push the Congressman just over the finish line. The Reyes' should learn a lesson from this campaign. It took bringing out all the big guns to put Reyes over the top. No doubt about it, El Paso is changing.

Quick side note on the also-rans. There are enough of them to force a run-off. Incumbents don't do well in run-offs. But make no mistake about it, this is a two-man race. Tilghman, Mendoza, and Johnson are irrelevant to the outcome of this race. They have no base, no money, no real message, no nada. I know Tilghman has been complaining about not getting enough coverage, but until you have developed a base of support it should come as no surprise that there isn't much media interest. And when the media does call for comment, like they did on the gay marriage issue, no one but the two real candidates comments.

SBOE - Sergio Mora is going to be the winner in this race. Andres Muro was hurt by a lack of finances and an embarrassing photo. Mora is a skilled candidate, strong communicator and has a well-developed knowledge of the issues. He's been working harder than Muro and the other candidate, Dr. Dominguez. Mora is going to pull Laredo, his home town, and he's going to do much better in El Paso than people think. Muro will get significant numbers because he's from El Paso, but Mora has been making the rounds all over the place, even winning the support of County Judge Veronica Escobar.

State Rep District 75 - Money is typically the deciding factor in races. Combine that with a ground game that got fixed late in the game and an opponent with more ties to the GOP than a Haggerty and you've got a recipe for victory. Mary Gonzalez is going to be Rep Mary Gonzalez. It will be an historic victory as well because this isn't something that has really be mentioned much by the local media, but it would be the first time a woman will be elected down in the valley. There was an Austin fundraiser last night to give one last financial push to help Gonzalez win. I think she wins, and since Tony San Roman is working as hard as he did when he ran for HD 76 a couple of years ago, and by that I mean he isn't working hard, I think she wins without a run off. If there is a run-off, advantage Gonzalez. She's got the Austin money to pull from if she ends up in a run off.

El Paso will now have two members of the delegation who are OPENLY named Gonzalez. (Sorry, that joke was for Enriquez)

State Rep District 77 - Marquez will coast to victory on this one. I think she was up at around 55% and Barraza around 45%, but now that she's on TV, which I think plays well in that district, I think it'll push over over 60%. But respectable showing for Barraza.

Chief Justice, 8th Court of Appeals - Ann McClure will win.

Justice, 8th Court of Appeals - Run-off. Stanton is in, I'm not sure which of the other two makes it in. This is a name ID race and he's on TV and has higher visibility. This race is also across multiple counties and that throws off the Hispanic-surname calculation.

41st District Court - In a name ID race, as the judicial races are, I think IF there is a run-off, Anna Perez is in solidly. Dolores Reyes will join her. Cervantes just hasn't had a high enough profile.

243rd - TV goes a long way in name ID races but Contreras has had a billboard up for a while. Frankly, too close to call for me. I don't really have a sense of who's up or down in this race. Although if there was a contest for the ugliest signs, they would tie.

383rd - Another one I really don't have a sense of who is going to win. Aceves-Hayes has a big boost from the Times though.

388th - Laura Strathmann is a solid run-off candidate. I think Don Williams needs some close calls to go his way, but with a little help, might just make the run-off. But Camaren Flores is coming on strong and got a bump from that Times endorsement.

448th - I think there's a reason the Times didn't endorse in this race. And I can see why. The incumbent is damaged goods, but none of her challengers seem to be doing ANYTHING in this race. Cavazos started upping his signage, but he hasn't been to anything. I've never met the vato and I go to everything. And truth be told, I didn't even realize Sergio Enriquez was in the race. Arditti in a run-off, if there is a run-off. If there is a run-off, the opponent better grow a pair and take her on, otherwise Arditti wins handily.

Criminal District Court #1 -  This was the race TC thinks she has all wrapped up. She doesn't. This is going to be a run-off. Castillo is the only candidate on TV, the only one with a high profile of signage. Following the El Paso Times endorsement, there's nothing easy about this race for TC. Run-off between Caballero and Castillo.

District Attorney - Esparza. Blow out.

Tax Assessor Collector - First one on TV wins. I think Flores has the edge though. Quick sidebar, his people are spreading the dumbest and least effective whisper campaign ever. Hall of Fame stupid. I'll talk about it later.

County Commissioner Precinct #1 - Leon and Montelongo in a run-off. Leon better hope the media don't start asking questions about his time as Chief or his goose is cooked. Leon will go in to run-off with the most votes though.

County Commissioner Precinct #3 - Run-off. Chente and Vince. Dora knows she's behind, which is why she's going with the last minute Hail Mary.

Constable Precinct #1 - Robert White.

Constable Precinct #2 - A Haggerty in the Northeast? You do the math.

Constable Precinct #3 - Jeff who? Hector Bernal in a blow out.

Constable Precinct #4 - Who cares. I think they are both trying to lose.

Constable Precinct #6 - I don't know...Garcia and Joe Bob in a run-off?

Party Chairman - Butch Maya. Should and will win. You shouldn't end up as Party chair if you haven't bothered trying to talk to the people that actually do the work for the Democratic Party. Butch Maya wins, by two touchdowns.

Referendums 1-3 "For"

Precinct Chair - Me. I'm unopposed so far. But I swear to God I'll go negative if I get an opponent. And I'm expecting some key endorsements, money from Austin, and a super Pac to do negative ads on my behalf.

Best Blogger - Okay, not on the ballot and the election is actually next Wednesday at the Airport Holiday Inn, but I'm pretty sure I'm gonna lose to someone who blogs about cats a couple times a year.

Boo....My streak of losing every year continues...


FINAL NOTE - IF I DIDN'T PICK YOU, DON'T GET YOUR CHONES IN A WAD. ITS JUST MY GUESSES, WHAT DO I KNOW? SERIOUSLY, DON'T CALL ME COMPLAINING. I'M ONLY GOING TO PRETEND TO BE INTERESTED IN WHAT YOU SAY ANYWAY.