Why Charlie Garza's is Going to Lose Re-Election Bid

Ever since his coronation-like swearing-in ceremony the clock has been ticking on his career as an elected official.

It only takes a few minutes of conversation with Garza and you'll see he's an extremist Republican. Don't get me wrong, he's a nice guy and I could talk to him for hours, but make no mistake, he's an extremist. Just ask him what his views are on immigration, gays in the military, or evolution and you'll understand what I mean.

This piece isn't commentary about his performance as a member of the State Board of Education because I haven't had enough time to research his tenure fully...yet.

This is about why he's going to lose re-election.

First, to understand why he is going to lose, you must first understand how Garza won in the first place. Garza won because of the big Tea Party wave. Two years ago was the height of their popularity and influence. Ever since then, the El Paso Tea Party has been looking for smaller and smaller venues to meet. I'm betting they will have to meet in the front pew of Tom Brown's church soon.

At any rate, Garza had all the political starts line up in his favor in order for him to win election. The SBOE is now pretty unpopular and the Tea Party is even MORE unpopular.

He is going to be the poster-boy for Tea Party backlash.

So without the abnormal turnout from 2 years ago, Garza's goose is cooked.

But there is an even more important reason Garza's goose is cooked.

Redistricting.

The already Democratic-leaning district actually became a solid Democratic district through redistricting. George Bush's home town of Midland, Texas has been taken out of the district in exchange for a more blue-collar Odessa, Texas.

The math is not in Garza's favor.