Winners and Losers of New Election Date

Now that the San Antonio Courts have tentatively set a date for the election (May 29th), its time to talk about who are the winners and losers.

So here's what that looks like.

In general, front-runners are losers in the date change because of the fact that its more time that their opponents can bite in to their leads and more time where they can make a mistake along the way.

To a degree, we are all losers. The tone of this election cycle is ugly, even by El Paso standards. Trust me, it ain't gonna get nicer along the way. Its going to get even worse, so in that sense we all lose.

The candidates that haven't been able to raise money are going to be in even more pain because of the election move. It means it will take more money to get their message out to voters.

But lets talk about some specific candidates in terms of who is hurt and who benefits from the election date change.

We'll start with the Congressional race:

Congressman Reyes: Hurt - it gives his main opponent more time to visit with voters and make his case. It also gives the Super PACS more time to raise money against the Congressman. Also means more time for negative headlines to surface. But he does have the benefit of having the ability to raise money and sustain a long, bloody battle which will blunt some of the negative impact of the election date change.

Beto O'Rourke: Benefits - He benefits completely. Any additional time for him is a benefit. More time for the  Super PACS to raise money for him, more time for him to work the ground, more time for a negative headline or two about the Congressman to pop up.

Jerome Tilghman and Ben Mendoza - Neither. They are not a factor in the race. Doesn't matter how much time they have, unless one of them is suddenly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize or reveals that he is secretly Superman, they aren't going to matter at all in this race, so when the election is doesn't matter. They are still going to get the same number of votes. Themselves and a few family and friends.

House District 75

Mary Gonzalez - Benefits - She's the front-runner in the race and I said in general the front-runners are hurt by the election date, but she might actually be the exception. Why? Because she is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of someone else's misfortune. Which leads me to the next candidate...

Willie Gandara Jr. -Hurt - probably more than anyone else in the election. The reason is because that means the election will be after his father's first court date. No matter what happens on that day, its going to generate negative press. That hurts Gandara and benefits Gonzalez.

Hector Enriquez - Benefits - It gives him more time to work his plan and try to influence voters. Money might be an issue for him. Which would also be a concern for Gonzalez.

Art Fierro - Benefits - maybe. Depends on the lines and the residency requirements. If things go the way he wants, he can get it in gear and quickly become a front-runner again. Time is on his side in that case.

County Commissioner's Court Precinct 1

Its an open seat and I don't think any candidate is really hurt or helped by the election date change. Although I think the person most on the edge of their seat is Carlos Leon. There is a real possibility that he might not be able to even get in the race. All depends on what the courts say about filing dates, although I'm inclined to believe he'll be able to get in the race. What hurts Leon is the fact that organizations have already started their endorsement processes and since he's not on the ballot yet, he's losing out. The most notable being the Coalition of Public Safety (COPS) endorsement, which is set to take place very soon. That one should be a lay-up for him but if he's not on the ballot, he's not going to get the endorsement.








County Commissioner's Court Precinct 3

Dora Oaxaca - Hurt - She's so closely tied to the Gandara's that anything that is negative for them is negative for her. They are so close that if Willie catches a fever, Dora is going to be sweating. For some reason they have this idea that their connection to Gandara is only positive and not negative at all. That somehow "the community knows the difference between the two". Which is not only patently false, but it is also at least a passive acknowledgement that Willie's rep ain't what it used to be down in the valley. Plus she's going to get contributions from the Gandaras. When something negative about them hits the papers, she's gonna feel the impact as well.

Vince Perez - Benefits. He has more time to bite in to the district and raise his profile. He also has more time to draft and implement messaging strategy against his opponents. He's methodical and the more time he has, the more he benefits.


Chente Quintanilla - Benefits. He gets more time to raise money and try to get his campaign back in the black. He's got a big family to do a lot of the campaign work that has to get done so the extra time is helpful to him.

HD 77

Aaron Barraza - Benefits. Its a big-time benefit for Barraza because he needs the time. He needs the time to learn about the issues, develop an understanding of the district, try to bite in to Marquez's support in the district, raise more money, and become a better quality candidate. If you've seen him speak in a group then you know he's not ready. He's been doing every thing possible to avoid scrutiny from media or his opponent. And that has been pretty smart on his part because if they get in a debate, Marquez is going to eat him alive. So the more time he has to go to candidate boot camp, the better. Barraza is really helped by the longer campaign period. He does well from what I'm told, one-on-one when he's on someone's door step, so the more time he has to do that, the better. He just needs to avoid being asked questions about policy, positions, or ideas. He also needs to avoid side-by-side comparisons with Marquez. His inexperience and lack of knowledge of the issues is really pronounced when they are side-by-side on a stage.

State Rep Marisa Marquez - Hurt...sorta. Its more time for her opponent to get up-to-speed on issues. Its more time for him to fund raise. Its more time for him to walk neighborhoods aggressively. But much like the Congressman, the negative impact will be softened by the fact that as a Committee Vice Chair, albeit in the minority, she can start raising big money if things get tight.