Moody Drawn Out of 78; Drawn in to 77

Former State Representative Joe Moody was drawn out of the HD 78 and drawn in to HD 77 in the latest version of the maps.

That is a big development and leaves Moody with a couple of options. I haven't had a chance to speak with Moody yet, but these are his options as I see them. (Don't start freakin' out people. Its just a 'what-if' piece).

Option #1 - Moody could just move back in to the district. He was drawn out, so moving back in won't be a big deal and he's running against someone who moved in to the district to run in the first place. The courts haven't made a decision on filing windows or residency requirements (which will also affect HD 75 btw), so time is on Moody's side.

From what I am hearing out of San Antonio, it looks like the residency requirement won't be in play because of the flux of election dates, the candidate would just have to move in the district if they won.

I should point out that Moody has always lived in HD 78. He was in the district in every version of the maps until this final map came out which was the first time EVER he was not in the district.

Option #2 - Run for HD 77. That would be perhaps the most newsworthy decision on the part of Moody. That would pit him against a sitting Democratic State Representative Marisa Marquez. One former state rep from a party being drawn out of a district and put in to that of another sitting state rep from the same party and the two duke it out has happened before. But not in El Paso that I can recall. Marquez appears set to cruise to victory over Barraza fairly handily, but with the possible entrance of Joe Moody in to the race, it would change everything.

First off, it would be a money war between the Texans for Lawsuit Reform and the Texas Trial Lawyers Association.

A pretty good chunk of Moody's former district would also be drawn in to the district along with Moody, so he would come with a base. Marquez and Moody are both pretty popular Democrats, but I think with the possible exception of Sheriff Wiles, Moody is likely the most popular Democrat in El Paso County. Parts of the Northeast are also in District 77 now and they are familiar with Moody as well. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, part of the Moody clan lives in the Northeast.

Plus, Moody knows how to campaign in close races. He's never had a race that wasn't close because he ran in a Republican district. He knows ground game.

When asked about the possibility of facing Joe Moody in a Democratic primary, Marquez said that the maps just came out and its too early to tell what anyone is going to do that that she would cross that bridge when she comes to it.

The other candidate, Aaron Barraza stated, "I would continue my campaign, its not ideal to go against a fellow Irishmen, but in the end the voters would be the winners." Barraza and Moody are both Cathedral grads.

When I spoke to Barraza he didn't seem worried or shaken at all. He seemed calm and confident. Clearly he and his staff had already realized that Moody in the race was a possibility.

Marquez would have the advantage of obviously having the largest base within the District and she is the incumbent. She has also been walking and upping her campaign visibility and therefore has a head start. And of course, Marquez has money in the campaign war chest and the ability to raise more. She also has Forma Group. They worked with Margo to take out Moody in the last election and they worked with Naomi Gonzalez to take out Norma Chavez. And Marquez also knows how to run a tough campaign, taking out Moreno was no easy accomplishment.

Barraza has been very busy walking and talking with voters. But if Moody did decide to enter the race, I think Barraza would likely see most of his support melt away pretty quickly. He more than anyone should be hoping Moody doesn't jump in the race because Moody in the race makes him even less relevant. Even one-on-one with Marquez Barraza is a long-shot at best. But he has benefited from some strong anti-Marquez sentiment, somewhat of an alliance with the Morenos, and some grass-roots help from a couple members of Congressman Reyes' staff.

But with two strong debaters and policy experts like Moody and Marquez both in the race, both with legislative experience, both with the ability to raise money, both with established support bases, and both with established voting records, Barraza's is going to find himself on the outside looking in. Out-gunned in terms of support, knowledge of issues, and ability to raise money.

But he'll be alright, he has a bright future ahead of him if he plays his cards right.

Although...and it is way to early to say for sure obviously, but Marquez might want Barraza to stick around. Barraza might end up being her key to victory in a three-way race. Who knows? Too early to tell but something to watch.

Option #3 - Run for something else. People have talked about Moody running for Mayor someday. People have also said that he would be a good Congressional candidate and maybe if the Congressman wins re-election and then decides to retire Moody might consider a stab at that office. Or maybe County Judge Escobar appoints him to fill the Precinct 3 seat on Commissioner's Court until someone is elected. Okay, I'm kidding.

Option #4 - Do nothing at all. Not run for anything.

Of all the options, I think obviously Option #1 is most likely.

Option #2 is also on the table, though not nearly as likely as Option #1.

Options #3 and #4 seem the least likely.

Stay tuned...this could get interesting.