Election Day Reschedule: The Winners & Losers
Okay, so the election went from a sprint to a marathon. Which for a lot of campaigns, is bad news.
Very bad news.
All candidates will tell you its good news because it gives them more time to talk to voters. Take a big whiff when you hear them say it because that ladies and genuine, is 100% US Grade A BULLSHIT!
They would much rather it be in March rather than April.
Especially the broke-ass campaigns. They have to make their pesitos last even longer. Unless someone suddenly taps a cash-flow somewhere. Which is possible, but not probable.
But its not all good news for the candidates that are loaded either.
So here is a quick hit of some of the more prominent races and who I think is a winner and loser as a result of the rescheduling of the election day. (Note: I'm not saying that the winners are going to win or the losers are going to lose. Its just a reflection of who benefits and who is hurt by the election date change).
County Commissioner Races
Precinct 1
Liza Montelongo - Winner. She has a strong team, she has a base, she knows how to campaign and she was just in a long tough campaign less than two years ago. She knows what she's in for and she will likely be able to do some fundraising. She is probably one of the biggest overall winners because of the election date change because it gives her time to distinguish herself from the other candidates and she will likely have the money to wage a prolonged war of attrition.
Danny Anchondo - Loser. The longer the race, the more time people will have to learn about him and its not likely they they are going to like what they see. He'll have to dump in a lot of his own cash if he wants to hang with Montelongo.
Jaime Romo & Dora Elkabachi - Winners. Sorta. No one knows who the hell they are and they will need all the time in the world in order to introduce themselves to voters in order to be competitive. One of them needs to pull a significant amount of votes in order to even force a run-off. Elkabachi has some ties to realtors, so she might be able to get some cash from those folks...maybe.
Precinct 3
Vince Perez and the Other Guy - Winners. It gives them time to continue to campaign and try to cut in to the notoriety of State Rep Chente Quintanilla who appears to be campaigning by holding events for seniors. God knows he pretty much mailed it in with his signage. They were lame when he was a State Rep candidate, they are even more crappy now that he is running for County Commissioner. Which means people in the lower valley will love them. Mostly because they suck. Perez needs all the time he can get to prove to everyone he is the smartest kid in class (which he is, by a country mile too), and convince some donors that he is the guy to support in that race. The Other Guy will need that time so that people will know who he is. I seriously forget his name. And if I do, I know voters do to.
Dora Oaxaca - Could be a huge winner....but...could be a huge loser too. She is a hard campaigner and the more time she has, the better off she will be. She was the last of the candidates to get in the race and I didn't think there was enough time for her to execute a ground game that would make her competitive. Now, time is on her side and she could quite possibly be the biggest winner of the bunch along with Montelongo.
That is...if her connections to the Gandara's don't ultimately do her in. People can cross their fingers, hold their eyes shut real tight, and wish hard with all their might, that voters will make a distinction between her and the Gandara's, but that is a pipe dream. Not in El Paso. And especially not down in the valley. As long as they stay scandal-free between now and Election Day, and as long as Vince Perez doesn't decide to remind voters of her connections to Gandara, she should do pretty well.
But if Perez has shown one thing, its that he knows how to turn a track-record in to political ammunition with the best of them.
State Rep Chente Quintanilla - He's got all the money in that race. But its been so long since he had a viable opponent that I think he's forgotten how to campaign. He spends a lot of time at senior centers, but thats not enough to get this down. Perez and Oaxaca will be able to tag team on Quintanilla's record for the next few months. Hell, I don't think we've seen a potentially strong tag-team like Perez and Oaxaca since the days of the Mega Powers (Hulk Hogan & Macho Man Savage) or Demolition (Axe & Smash). Relax Road Warrior fans, I'm sure we can include Animal and Hawk too...
Time is not on Quintanilla's side. Every day that passes is another day that Oaxaca and Perez are out hustling and preparing mailers outlining Quintanilla's Greatest Hits, like sopapillas and the sonogram bill.
HD 75
Art Fierro - Winner. Big time. He has the resources to run a marathon. He has the ground game knowledge too.
Willie Gandara - Loser. Every day the election goes one is one day closer to his dad going to trial. That is not going to be helpful for his campaign at all.
Plus every day that goes by is the potential for Gandara to miss yet another important meeting. People have noticed and if he's out campaigning for another job and ignoring the one he has...well, wouldn't you fire that guy if he worked for you?
Guess what people in the lower valley...he does.
Hector Enriquez - If he can stop being his own worst campaign enemy, he'll be a winner in this scenario. That's provided he can stop himself from pissing off the state delegation. They aren't happy with him. But you'll be interested to know who is buddy, buddy with him lately. I'll save that for another piece, I'm still waiting on two phone calls.
Mary Gonzalez - winner...maybe. She hasn't lived in El Paso during her adult life. She's going to need all the time she can get to overcome that obstacle. I don't think she's going to have the money to last until election day unless some cash drops out of the sky, she wins the lottery, or Annie's List or another Austin lobby group comes in to help. Those are all big "ifs". Her only hope is that she is very frugal, runs a flawless (truly) grassroots campaign, and gets some help in the form of campaign missteps from either Fierro or Gandara.
Congressional Race -
Beto O'Rourke - Winner. He has more time to make his case against the Congressman. If he continues with a negative campaign he will likely start to draw some blood from the Congressman. The media is never going to be critical of his campaign, so he can basically throughout the defensive playbook, remove the goalie from the net, and focus 100% on playing offense.
Congressman - Loser. Sorta. If its good for Beto, it must be bad for Reyes. True, but it also gives the Congressman more time to wage an air war in commercials and gives him more time to get big shots to come to town on his behalf. Beto has Susie, Vero, and Steve on his team, lets see if the Congressman can get Pelosi, Clinton, and POTUS on his. (PS if you don't know what POTUS means, stop reading my blog and stop reading books with pictures in them.)
Tighlman & Mendoza - Who gives a shit. They don't matter. They are not viable candidates and you people should immediately stop pretending they are. Jerome is a full-time teacher, doesn't have a solid campaign manager, and is so conservative that he was the keynote speaker at the Tea Party Rally earlier this year.
Very bad news.
All candidates will tell you its good news because it gives them more time to talk to voters. Take a big whiff when you hear them say it because that ladies and genuine, is 100% US Grade A BULLSHIT!
They would much rather it be in March rather than April.
Especially the broke-ass campaigns. They have to make their pesitos last even longer. Unless someone suddenly taps a cash-flow somewhere. Which is possible, but not probable.
But its not all good news for the candidates that are loaded either.
So here is a quick hit of some of the more prominent races and who I think is a winner and loser as a result of the rescheduling of the election day. (Note: I'm not saying that the winners are going to win or the losers are going to lose. Its just a reflection of who benefits and who is hurt by the election date change).
County Commissioner Races
Precinct 1
Liza Montelongo - Winner. She has a strong team, she has a base, she knows how to campaign and she was just in a long tough campaign less than two years ago. She knows what she's in for and she will likely be able to do some fundraising. She is probably one of the biggest overall winners because of the election date change because it gives her time to distinguish herself from the other candidates and she will likely have the money to wage a prolonged war of attrition.
Danny Anchondo - Loser. The longer the race, the more time people will have to learn about him and its not likely they they are going to like what they see. He'll have to dump in a lot of his own cash if he wants to hang with Montelongo.
Jaime Romo & Dora Elkabachi - Winners. Sorta. No one knows who the hell they are and they will need all the time in the world in order to introduce themselves to voters in order to be competitive. One of them needs to pull a significant amount of votes in order to even force a run-off. Elkabachi has some ties to realtors, so she might be able to get some cash from those folks...maybe.
Precinct 3
Vince Perez and the Other Guy - Winners. It gives them time to continue to campaign and try to cut in to the notoriety of State Rep Chente Quintanilla who appears to be campaigning by holding events for seniors. God knows he pretty much mailed it in with his signage. They were lame when he was a State Rep candidate, they are even more crappy now that he is running for County Commissioner. Which means people in the lower valley will love them. Mostly because they suck. Perez needs all the time he can get to prove to everyone he is the smartest kid in class (which he is, by a country mile too), and convince some donors that he is the guy to support in that race. The Other Guy will need that time so that people will know who he is. I seriously forget his name. And if I do, I know voters do to.
Dora Oaxaca - Could be a huge winner....but...could be a huge loser too. She is a hard campaigner and the more time she has, the better off she will be. She was the last of the candidates to get in the race and I didn't think there was enough time for her to execute a ground game that would make her competitive. Now, time is on her side and she could quite possibly be the biggest winner of the bunch along with Montelongo.
That is...if her connections to the Gandara's don't ultimately do her in. People can cross their fingers, hold their eyes shut real tight, and wish hard with all their might, that voters will make a distinction between her and the Gandara's, but that is a pipe dream. Not in El Paso. And especially not down in the valley. As long as they stay scandal-free between now and Election Day, and as long as Vince Perez doesn't decide to remind voters of her connections to Gandara, she should do pretty well.
But if Perez has shown one thing, its that he knows how to turn a track-record in to political ammunition with the best of them.
State Rep Chente Quintanilla - He's got all the money in that race. But its been so long since he had a viable opponent that I think he's forgotten how to campaign. He spends a lot of time at senior centers, but thats not enough to get this down. Perez and Oaxaca will be able to tag team on Quintanilla's record for the next few months. Hell, I don't think we've seen a potentially strong tag-team like Perez and Oaxaca since the days of the Mega Powers (Hulk Hogan & Macho Man Savage) or Demolition (Axe & Smash). Relax Road Warrior fans, I'm sure we can include Animal and Hawk too...
Time is not on Quintanilla's side. Every day that passes is another day that Oaxaca and Perez are out hustling and preparing mailers outlining Quintanilla's Greatest Hits, like sopapillas and the sonogram bill.
HD 75
Art Fierro - Winner. Big time. He has the resources to run a marathon. He has the ground game knowledge too.
Willie Gandara - Loser. Every day the election goes one is one day closer to his dad going to trial. That is not going to be helpful for his campaign at all.
Plus every day that goes by is the potential for Gandara to miss yet another important meeting. People have noticed and if he's out campaigning for another job and ignoring the one he has...well, wouldn't you fire that guy if he worked for you?
Guess what people in the lower valley...he does.
Hector Enriquez - If he can stop being his own worst campaign enemy, he'll be a winner in this scenario. That's provided he can stop himself from pissing off the state delegation. They aren't happy with him. But you'll be interested to know who is buddy, buddy with him lately. I'll save that for another piece, I'm still waiting on two phone calls.
Mary Gonzalez - winner...maybe. She hasn't lived in El Paso during her adult life. She's going to need all the time she can get to overcome that obstacle. I don't think she's going to have the money to last until election day unless some cash drops out of the sky, she wins the lottery, or Annie's List or another Austin lobby group comes in to help. Those are all big "ifs". Her only hope is that she is very frugal, runs a flawless (truly) grassroots campaign, and gets some help in the form of campaign missteps from either Fierro or Gandara.
Congressional Race -
Beto O'Rourke - Winner. He has more time to make his case against the Congressman. If he continues with a negative campaign he will likely start to draw some blood from the Congressman. The media is never going to be critical of his campaign, so he can basically throughout the defensive playbook, remove the goalie from the net, and focus 100% on playing offense.
Congressman - Loser. Sorta. If its good for Beto, it must be bad for Reyes. True, but it also gives the Congressman more time to wage an air war in commercials and gives him more time to get big shots to come to town on his behalf. Beto has Susie, Vero, and Steve on his team, lets see if the Congressman can get Pelosi, Clinton, and POTUS on his. (PS if you don't know what POTUS means, stop reading my blog and stop reading books with pictures in them.)
Tighlman & Mendoza - Who gives a shit. They don't matter. They are not viable candidates and you people should immediately stop pretending they are. Jerome is a full-time teacher, doesn't have a solid campaign manager, and is so conservative that he was the keynote speaker at the Tea Party Rally earlier this year.
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