Chinks in Reyes' Armor

I really don't need to write this piece because Beto really doesn't need anyone's help on playing offense. Other than punching himself in the eye with social security, he's done basically everything right as a candidate.

He's witty, strong on the issues, dynamic and very cool under pressure. As I've said before, a young Bobby Kennedy.

So since I really don't have any extra wood to add to the fire for O'Rourke, I will touch on the areas where I think he's been effective against the Congressman.

In general, he's been really great at hitting the "change nerve". You get the sense when you hear him speak that he's going to be a somebody some day. He's shifted gears now, but in the beginning he was great about going after the Congressman in a way that made it about issues, platform, vision, and direction without being disrespectful to the Congressman. I think that made people open to hearing him out.

He's got a different tone these days like calling the Congressman an "embarrassment", but I think if he sticks with the "we owe him our gratitude but we don't owe him another term" line he will open more doors for himself.

I think O'Rourke's strongest line of attack is the voting record thing. I don't know if its accurate, and I don't know what formula was used to arrive at the figure. For all I know it could be some weird calculatation having to do with procedural votes, committee votes, and votes making it National Left-Handed Ice Cream Vendors day. But it doesn't matter, no one else is going to go through the trouble to figure it out either. That's what makes it so effective.

The Veterans issue is also effective for O'Rourke. It puts the Congressman on the defensive about something he is very passionate about. Wanna know just how masterful O'Rourke really is? A guy who has never worn a uniform has taken veteran's issues as one of his big causes in the campaign against a candidate that is a Vietnam Veteran and has been effective.

Even if the only reason its effective is because its gotten under Reyes' skin, its still effective.

Side-by-side comparisons. That benefits O'Rourke because they are so strikingly different. O'Rourke is a better communicator. He is going to win that battle every day and twice on Sunday.

And probably most-importantly to O'Rourke's campaign, O'Rourke will have the benefit of visiting more voters. He's had a huge head-start on that, but the Congressman is a sitting member of Congress. His schedule will be such that he simply doesn't have the time to devote to walking every single day for several hours every day and having an in-person conversation with voters.

O'Rourke is damn good on a door step. Several voters have indicated that. He's a likable guy, as is the Congressman. So all things being equal, O'Rourke will benefit the most from the personal connections. There is no way in hell the Congressman can match the number of houses O'Rourke has personally reached.

Hell, sources tell me he was out walking near Bel Air High School later in the day after the debate yesterday.  He's relentless. Despite the proclamations of a "grassroots" campaign, O'Rourke is wealthy and will have a lot of money in the race.

The deck is stacked against O'Rourke. It was from the beginning and is even more so now because of the way the campaign has developed, the drawing of the district lines, and the recall vote coming only a month after the primary (which means Pastor Brown's people will be campaigning around the same time as the other election). But O'Rourke has the personal tools to make things interesting.

He has the communications skills to make a point.

And he has the ability to make a difference in the campaign.