Chente Quintanilla Possible Comish Candidate for Precinct #3

He's not the politico I was alluding to over my last couple of posts, but there are some indications and more than a few whispers that State Rep Chente Quintanilla may run for County Commissioner in Precinct #3, currently represented by Willie Gandara, Jr.

If true, this is yet another indicator that Gandara won't seek re-election. This puts one person in particular in the limelight. A former staffer for both Gandara and Quintanilla, Dora Oaxaca.

First, lets talk about why this makes sense for Quintanilla. Quintanilla had yet another bad session in Austin. I looked at population numbers for his district and he's way over populated in his district. His district is going to be redrawn and its going to look a lot more Republican. He's a conservative Democrat, but still a Democrat. The only way he'd fight off a Republican challenger is if he switched parties and became a Republican.

Which honestly wouldn't surprise me given some of the votes he's made.

Secondly, he's run in an area that is similar to Gandara's. Their districts overlap, so he has a base of support and pretty good name ID.

And finally, as a state rep, he doesn't make much of a salary. The commissioner seat pays a lot more than what he was making as a state rep. Significantly more.

But lets be honest, Quintanilla is not the strongest candidate out there. He's largely benefited from a lack of competition over his career in the legislature, along with almost no media scrutiny what so ever. There is a real question as to how he would do in a side-by-side comparison with a candidate with actual credibility. He's never really had to face that.

Then there is the sonogram bill. Quintanilla says he's a Democrat, but the sonogram bills is clearly against the national platform of the party and a lot of women are not happy with that vote. Any candidate worth a damn will remind constituents about that vote.

I mean think about it, before that vote, the vote Quintanilla was most known for was the Sopapilla Bill. By the time the campaign gets in to full swing, Quintanilla will probably be yearning for the days when that was his most significant vote.

But the biggest piece of info flying around, which I haven't been able to confirm yet, is about his Chief of Staff, Robert Grijalva. Word on the street is that Grijalva has left his job as Chief of Staff for Quinanilla to be the campaign manager for Ciro Rodriguez, who will be trying to unseat Republican Quico Canseco. Canseco defeated Rodriguez in the 2010 election for congress.

If Grijalva, who was at one-time considering a run for state rep himself against State Rep Marissa Marquez, is working for Canseco then it has implications for two seats. First, it would be a very big indicator that Quintanilla is planning a run for County Commissioner.

Secondly it would mean that he isn't running for Marquez' state rep seat, which means its even more likely that Marquez won't face a serious challenge for re-election.

The most interesting part of the whole scenario is that all of these developments are allegedly going on, but the politico I was talking about still hasn't made a decision. When that happens, things are really going to get interesting in the valley.

I'm betting regular media will now start making calls to people to get more solid info, so what for developments online, in the pages, and on the channels.