Who's Running for Congress & Who's Not...Yet
So I've been having a similar conversation with several people around town ever since Tim Besco told the GOP "Fuck you, I hope you all rot in hell".
People have been asking if the Congressman is going to end up with an opponent in the primary. No, I don't mean the eccentrics, they ask if he is going to get a serious opponent. My answer is usually something along the lines of "Are you kidding? What serious candidate would do that?"
Interestingly, a friend of mine called me today to say that there was a similar conversation going on at a local message board. He even said someone threw out the comment of when it would end up on my blog.
So, I guess to save me from going through the same analysis over and over, let me break it down. Of course, this is only my opinion.
IF anyone takes on the Congressman in a primary, it would be Beto O'rourke. I recently wrote that I don't think he will based on some of the things he's said, but IF there was a real challenge to the Congressman in a primary, O'rourke is the one with the balls to do it.
So some of the other names thrown around have been Mayor Cook, County Judge Veronica Escobar, Senator Rodriguez, Steve Ortega, Eddie Holguin, Eliot Shapleigh, etc...
Let me make it quick...
Mayor Cook - maybe someday, but time isn't on his side and his "I'm not a plumber" line during Stormpocolypse will likely come up. That's not going to help him unless he's auditioning to work for Johnson Jewelers. He's not likely to lock horns with the Congressman.
Senator Rodriguez - Too smart to challenge the Congressman in a primary. He would make a great Congressman in my mind, but I think he'll wait until the opportunity presents itself, much like he did for his current seat.
Steve & Eddie - I don't think Steve is interested in it and would have to be talked in to it. Eddie isn't ready...yet. Remember, he's in late 20's I think. He's still VERY young and has plenty of political years in front of him. He'll be a state rep soon and can serve in that capacity for years and years building a resume, experience and a war chest for a possible run down the road. The same is true for Steve Ortega. Mark my words, those two are destined to be the John Adams and Thomas Jefferson of El Paso. Two smart guys that will often find themselves in opposition.
Eliot Shapleigh - Not liked enough.
County Judge Veronica Escobar - I think the reality is that Veronica Escobar will be the next member of Congress from El Paso if she so chooses. She's well positioned, smart, poised, etc. Everything you want in a leader. She's a hard campaigner and handles media well. And lets face it, if you saw her on Capitol Hill, then you saw her kick Senator John McCain's ass. Escboar is not going to take on the Congressman in a primary. She doesn't have to. The job is hers the minute the Congressman decides to resign. The only real question is between Escobar and Rodriguez.
Now for the names I didn't mention, namely Jaime Esparza and Willie Gandara Jr. Neither of them would take on the Congressman in a primary to begin with and neither of them are really considered contenders anymore.
Jaime Esparza - He got Rachel Quintana on a misdemeanor, but had to try the most high-profile murder case in El Paso since people were still being put in Concordia twice, and lost the Arditti case. He had a worse year in the press than Tiger Woods. I think he knows he's no longer the heir-apparent to the Congressman.
No matter what happens, the seat is solidly Democrat and there is not a Republican in El Paso that has a chance at winning.
People have been asking if the Congressman is going to end up with an opponent in the primary. No, I don't mean the eccentrics, they ask if he is going to get a serious opponent. My answer is usually something along the lines of "Are you kidding? What serious candidate would do that?"
Interestingly, a friend of mine called me today to say that there was a similar conversation going on at a local message board. He even said someone threw out the comment of when it would end up on my blog.
So, I guess to save me from going through the same analysis over and over, let me break it down. Of course, this is only my opinion.
IF anyone takes on the Congressman in a primary, it would be Beto O'rourke. I recently wrote that I don't think he will based on some of the things he's said, but IF there was a real challenge to the Congressman in a primary, O'rourke is the one with the balls to do it.
So some of the other names thrown around have been Mayor Cook, County Judge Veronica Escobar, Senator Rodriguez, Steve Ortega, Eddie Holguin, Eliot Shapleigh, etc...
Let me make it quick...
Mayor Cook - maybe someday, but time isn't on his side and his "I'm not a plumber" line during Stormpocolypse will likely come up. That's not going to help him unless he's auditioning to work for Johnson Jewelers. He's not likely to lock horns with the Congressman.
Senator Rodriguez - Too smart to challenge the Congressman in a primary. He would make a great Congressman in my mind, but I think he'll wait until the opportunity presents itself, much like he did for his current seat.
Steve & Eddie - I don't think Steve is interested in it and would have to be talked in to it. Eddie isn't ready...yet. Remember, he's in late 20's I think. He's still VERY young and has plenty of political years in front of him. He'll be a state rep soon and can serve in that capacity for years and years building a resume, experience and a war chest for a possible run down the road. The same is true for Steve Ortega. Mark my words, those two are destined to be the John Adams and Thomas Jefferson of El Paso. Two smart guys that will often find themselves in opposition.
Eliot Shapleigh - Not liked enough.
County Judge Veronica Escobar - I think the reality is that Veronica Escobar will be the next member of Congress from El Paso if she so chooses. She's well positioned, smart, poised, etc. Everything you want in a leader. She's a hard campaigner and handles media well. And lets face it, if you saw her on Capitol Hill, then you saw her kick Senator John McCain's ass. Escboar is not going to take on the Congressman in a primary. She doesn't have to. The job is hers the minute the Congressman decides to resign. The only real question is between Escobar and Rodriguez.
Now for the names I didn't mention, namely Jaime Esparza and Willie Gandara Jr. Neither of them would take on the Congressman in a primary to begin with and neither of them are really considered contenders anymore.
Jaime Esparza - He got Rachel Quintana on a misdemeanor, but had to try the most high-profile murder case in El Paso since people were still being put in Concordia twice, and lost the Arditti case. He had a worse year in the press than Tiger Woods. I think he knows he's no longer the heir-apparent to the Congressman.
No matter what happens, the seat is solidly Democrat and there is not a Republican in El Paso that has a chance at winning.
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