Poll Numbers & What They Mean & Why Some Voters Are Stupid

Okay, if you've seen the paper, you've seen the numbers. None of them really shock me, although some might try to make something out of them but they might be taking a leap off of a flawed premise.

I'm mildly surprised that Lilly looks comfortably ahead, though there are almost as many people voting for someone else other than Lilly and about a third of the electorate is undecided.

Tim Besco should be shitting his pants right about now. Some of you are probably surprised that he's in second, but I've said before he'll do better than people think. As I previously stated, in a crowded field, the names most familiar to voters usually do the best. Besco was in a recent election, he had a couple of billboards up along the freeway in that election, and his two best performing districts in the congressional election were in that district.

So I expected him to have that share of the vote. I didn't expect that he'd be second. But nonetheless, all that going for him, along with the fact that Lilly can't spell, has questionable contributions, is managed by a duo that are El Paso's political answer to Al Qaida (look at their website, if you float over their name, it says "Sweep the leg") and who has trouble speaking a sentence clearly after running in a congressional election just months before and his still more than 20 points behind?

Lyda Ness clearly needs some help in third place. She's got to get her name in out there more. She has a chance to move up if she's able to connect to the undecided voters. All she has to do is come in second and she'll make the run-off. At that point, she will have to convince the people that voted for the other candidates to back her over the incumbent.

At this point, its pretty clear that Dr. Theresa Ware-Asbury is not a viable candidate and neither is Schecter. She should drop out and support Ness-Garcia if the Democrats are going to be able to get that seat. If Ness-Garcia had those numbers she'd be better positioned to make the run-off. If Schechter dropped out, those votes would likely go to Ness Garcia as well and then we are talking a different race entirely.

Hinojosa did much better than I thought and its not bad for a guy thats basically campaigning by forum.

District 5 is the one I think could have a surprise. They polled likely voters and Sonia Brown is running third. I actually think she might be leading. If there were a candidate that I think could actually create a significant number of new voters, its Sonia Brown. New voters would be under the radar of pollsters because they have no history. That's why Joe Moody beat the polls in 08, there were voters in the mix that weren't there before.

So while Noe and Mejia are fighting it out in a close one over the existing regular voters, Brown is a solid third place, without factoring in the new voters. I actually think if the election were held today, it would be Brown and Noe in the run-off.

Over 40% of the likely voters in that district are undecided. That tells me that no one is doing a sufficient job in convincing the voters. There are trust issues after four years of representation by Quintana and the voters are being more selective this go-around. Plus, there are a lot more voters in that district than there have been before and the new people in the area might not be familiar with the candidates.

But proof of just how stupid some voters are, a full 6% of the voters are saying they are going to vote for a guy who isn't even in the race anymore...Phillip Garcia. Garcia pulled out about a month ago and said he is going to support Mejia.

This race is going to get expensive.

District 6 has Holguin firmly ahead. His numbers look similar to the last election polling numbers. His numbers might look a little better in reality though because of one interesting factor not present in the other races. In District 6, north of the freeway and south of the freeway look like they are in two totally different towns. They voting patterns are different. There are far more 100% voters as a percentage of the electorate north of the freeway than south, so that might explain the high undecided voters in that race. But Holguin looks like he's coasting to victory there.

District 8 is a big fat yawn. Niland is ahead of her nearest opponent by 20% of the vote. I figured she'd be over 50%, but she still has a lot of money left and plenty of time for mailers.

Once again, with almost 6% of the vote, I am puzzled by the support of Jorge Artalejo. The guy needs subtitles and yet people are supporting him. I just don't get it.

The biggest loser?

Pastor Tom Brown. Looks like all of his candidates, with the exception of his wife, are getting soundly defeated.