Early Candidate Analysis - District 8
Okay, wrapping up the westside races, here is some quick early analysis of the District 8 Candidates. In general I think this race is more eccentric than even District 1, which is sayin' something.
Truth be told, I think there is a very good chance that despite the number of candidates, this race might not even have a run-off. Things could change, and that's not meant to disrespect any of the candidates, but thats how I see it at this time.
Jorge Artalejo - Not a viable candidate. No real message and is always running for something. No one takes him seriously, nor should they.
Sergio Contreras - On paper, he's a great candidate. But so far, its only on paper. He used to work on Wallstreet, then worked for the Pueblo. But again, not really a guy that looks like he has a firm grasp of the issues and his biggest problem is communication. Speaking is not his strong suit. No name ID, questionable ability to raise money, no base of support. Will not make a run-off, if there is one.
Gilbert Guillen - Who? No name ID, no base of support. I think he's done some development work, so perhaps he has a chance at raising some funds. If that's the case and he hires some good people he could improve, but at this point he does't appear to be a factor of viable.
Malcolm McGregor - I think its a matter of time before someone challenges his residency. If that's the case, I think he gets kicked off the ballot. Has a base of support in the religious sector, but not a big one. He appears to be a one-isse candidate (Against domestic partner benefits).
Cortney Niland - Absolutely the front runner. Has done everything the right way. Not a single mis-step so far. She runs very cautiously. My concerns about her was the money she was getting and who she was getting it from. After talking with her and listening to her in a forum, she seems to have the strongest command of the issues and deepest understanding of the complexities of city hall. She knows how to work a room pretty instinctively and has great poise. I'd like to see more from her in terms of fleshed-out positions on some of the social issues that have made it to city hall, but being the established front-runner I don't think it harms her to continue to play it safe and avoid controversy. Absent of any major development or scandal, I think its smooth sailing for Niland and she might even win without a run off.
Lisa Turner - No real base of support, no real access to big money. Great watchdog for the community, but not a candidate that will win a lot of votes.
Ernesto Villanueva - The only real threat to forcing Niland in to a run-off. In terms of social justice policy, I think the guy is right on. He has a good command of the issues, though he could use a couple of late nights studying up on a couple. Good communication skills and great passion for the job. But no base of support, no volunteer base, no money. He would need a lot of help to win, but if he works hard enough, he will be the only reason it goes to a run-off. Timing is everything in politics. I think he will be someone to watch in a few years, especially if he were mentored by the right people.
Truth be told, I think there is a very good chance that despite the number of candidates, this race might not even have a run-off. Things could change, and that's not meant to disrespect any of the candidates, but thats how I see it at this time.
Jorge Artalejo - Not a viable candidate. No real message and is always running for something. No one takes him seriously, nor should they.
Sergio Contreras - On paper, he's a great candidate. But so far, its only on paper. He used to work on Wallstreet, then worked for the Pueblo. But again, not really a guy that looks like he has a firm grasp of the issues and his biggest problem is communication. Speaking is not his strong suit. No name ID, questionable ability to raise money, no base of support. Will not make a run-off, if there is one.
Gilbert Guillen - Who? No name ID, no base of support. I think he's done some development work, so perhaps he has a chance at raising some funds. If that's the case and he hires some good people he could improve, but at this point he does't appear to be a factor of viable.
Malcolm McGregor - I think its a matter of time before someone challenges his residency. If that's the case, I think he gets kicked off the ballot. Has a base of support in the religious sector, but not a big one. He appears to be a one-isse candidate (Against domestic partner benefits).
Cortney Niland - Absolutely the front runner. Has done everything the right way. Not a single mis-step so far. She runs very cautiously. My concerns about her was the money she was getting and who she was getting it from. After talking with her and listening to her in a forum, she seems to have the strongest command of the issues and deepest understanding of the complexities of city hall. She knows how to work a room pretty instinctively and has great poise. I'd like to see more from her in terms of fleshed-out positions on some of the social issues that have made it to city hall, but being the established front-runner I don't think it harms her to continue to play it safe and avoid controversy. Absent of any major development or scandal, I think its smooth sailing for Niland and she might even win without a run off.
Lisa Turner - No real base of support, no real access to big money. Great watchdog for the community, but not a candidate that will win a lot of votes.
Ernesto Villanueva - The only real threat to forcing Niland in to a run-off. In terms of social justice policy, I think the guy is right on. He has a good command of the issues, though he could use a couple of late nights studying up on a couple. Good communication skills and great passion for the job. But no base of support, no volunteer base, no money. He would need a lot of help to win, but if he works hard enough, he will be the only reason it goes to a run-off. Timing is everything in politics. I think he will be someone to watch in a few years, especially if he were mentored by the right people.
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