Early Candidate Analysis - District 1
Its way to early to start making predictions, but I wanted to give you all some analysis of the candidates so far and what their chances of winning look like to me.
Don't interpret this as either support nor opposition to anyone, just an early snapshot of handicapping the races.
The key thing to remember when gauging a candidates viability is (not in any particular order) name recognition, ability to raise money, grassroots organization, volunteer base, likability, and command of the issues.
District 1 -
Tim Besco - No substantive understanding of issues. He basically agrees with whomever is in front of him at the moment. He has no volunteer base because he burned that particular bridge a long time ago. I also think that hurts his ability to raise money. He doesn't have a volunteer base, but he does have his campaign Oscar Gonzalez. But Gonzalez has some issues from his employment at the city that are better left in the dark. But Besco's two best performing precincts from the recent Congressional race are in his district and they happen to have the highest turn out of any precinct in town. He has name ID. Not really positive name ID, but in a crowded race, it is certainly helpful. So is being first on the ballot, something else he has going for him. I haven't forgotten that he had a couple of high-profile billboards up and so I give him a long-shot chance of making the run-off.
Manny Hinojosa - No money, no base, no grassroots operation, no name ID. He does however have a better grasp of the issues than the other conservative candidates in the race and gets better every time I see him. He's great at conservative bumper sticker rhetoric as well. But way too much of a mountain to overcome and not really top-tier candidate. He doesn't know how to campaign and spends most of his time going to forums and meetings with the same 100 people and isn't knocking on doors. He won't make the run-off.
Ann Morgan Lily - She's the incumbent. She should have all the things I identified...she doesn't. She's done, she just doesn't know it yet. Incumbents with a big field of candidates never do well. Nonetheless, I think she could make a run-off, but she's toast.
Lyda Ness-Garcia - Has a volunteer base to work with, is an attorney so she can raise some money, very solid undestanding of the issues, in terms of knowledge of the issues, is clearly the class of the field. Being a progressive in a conservative district is not a plus for her, but with all the conservatives splitting the vote, she is absolutely likely to make a run-off.
Abe Peinado - not quite ready for prime time. Not a deep knowledge of the issues, and its unclear if he can raise any money. I don't think he's knocking on many doors and doing much campaigning other than going to meetings. He's not going to make the run-off.
Dr. Theresa Ann Ware-Asbury - The unknown factor in the race. Doesn't have high name ID, but if she were to tap in to a volunteer base and work a little on her campaign messaging and packaging, she could make some noice. But she needs a few things to go her way. She's a progressive, but its a conservative district so that's not necessarily going to help her, even if she is right.
District 8, 5, & 6 tomorrow...
Don't interpret this as either support nor opposition to anyone, just an early snapshot of handicapping the races.
The key thing to remember when gauging a candidates viability is (not in any particular order) name recognition, ability to raise money, grassroots organization, volunteer base, likability, and command of the issues.
District 1 -
Tim Besco - No substantive understanding of issues. He basically agrees with whomever is in front of him at the moment. He has no volunteer base because he burned that particular bridge a long time ago. I also think that hurts his ability to raise money. He doesn't have a volunteer base, but he does have his campaign Oscar Gonzalez. But Gonzalez has some issues from his employment at the city that are better left in the dark. But Besco's two best performing precincts from the recent Congressional race are in his district and they happen to have the highest turn out of any precinct in town. He has name ID. Not really positive name ID, but in a crowded race, it is certainly helpful. So is being first on the ballot, something else he has going for him. I haven't forgotten that he had a couple of high-profile billboards up and so I give him a long-shot chance of making the run-off.
Manny Hinojosa - No money, no base, no grassroots operation, no name ID. He does however have a better grasp of the issues than the other conservative candidates in the race and gets better every time I see him. He's great at conservative bumper sticker rhetoric as well. But way too much of a mountain to overcome and not really top-tier candidate. He doesn't know how to campaign and spends most of his time going to forums and meetings with the same 100 people and isn't knocking on doors. He won't make the run-off.
Ann Morgan Lily - She's the incumbent. She should have all the things I identified...she doesn't. She's done, she just doesn't know it yet. Incumbents with a big field of candidates never do well. Nonetheless, I think she could make a run-off, but she's toast.
Lyda Ness-Garcia - Has a volunteer base to work with, is an attorney so she can raise some money, very solid undestanding of the issues, in terms of knowledge of the issues, is clearly the class of the field. Being a progressive in a conservative district is not a plus for her, but with all the conservatives splitting the vote, she is absolutely likely to make a run-off.
Abe Peinado - not quite ready for prime time. Not a deep knowledge of the issues, and its unclear if he can raise any money. I don't think he's knocking on many doors and doing much campaigning other than going to meetings. He's not going to make the run-off.
Dr. Theresa Ann Ware-Asbury - The unknown factor in the race. Doesn't have high name ID, but if she were to tap in to a volunteer base and work a little on her campaign messaging and packaging, she could make some noice. But she needs a few things to go her way. She's a progressive, but its a conservative district so that's not necessarily going to help her, even if she is right.
District 8, 5, & 6 tomorrow...
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