District 6 Analysis
Yes, I know, I skipped District 5, but there is a reason for that...it's the hardest to analyize.
But District 6 really is pretty easy to lay out.
Rep Eddie Holguin is the incumbent and even Republicans like him because he's very fiscally conservative. Though he waited until the last minute to launch his campaign, he is best positioned for re-election. He has two opponents that both live in the area north of the freeway.
Holguin in a matter of a weekend had hundreds of signs put up by his sign guy. He had a campaign kick off event with more than two hundred people in attendance and has a campaign headquarters opened and another in the works.
He has what is needed to win a campaign...the ability to raise money, name ID, a base of support, and volunteers.
Zulema Lazarin - aye pobresita. Its been one misstep after another with her. She has a major problem in that she didn't even know what district she lived in. That shows to some that she's running because there is an agenda that is greater than the needs of the district. Either the domestic partner benefits issue, or personal ego, or whatever...the point is it looks like she's running for the sake of running.
She has zero name ID. She has committed to only spending $500 so that means here name ID won't improve. She will have to do ALOT of walking, but thats when she meets her other big problem. What is she going to tell voters thats different from Holguin? Its hard to imagine her being more fiscally conservative than Holguin and he has a very strong voting record on fiscal issues. That leaves her the religious card, which makes her a one-issue candidate. One-issue candidates don't have a lot going for them and she runs in to her third big problem...the Lower Valley is very Catholic. If Holguin ever did a mailer highlighting her mentor's anti-Catholic teachings on his website, I doubt to many Catholic homes in the valley would be open to hearing her message.
Which leads us to Gerardo Rosiles. I'll just rip off the bandaid on this one. He doesn't speak English very well. That's not too big of an obstacle in the valley, but Rosiles is going to be focused on the area north of the freeway, which he feels is ignored by Holguin. Not exactly the strongest campaign message. He is almost in the same boat as Lazarin. No name ID, no support base, no volunteers. The only advantage he has is that he didn't committ to the $500 limit like Lazarin did.
Holguin will likely win without a run off, with Lazarin and Rosiles splitting the area north of the freeway. I think there might be a spike in turnout in the area north of the freeway this go around and Lazarin and Rosiles will probably be responsible for that.
Bottom line: Holguin wins without a run-off. But he should campaign hard because this race will likely be a barometer to test Holguin's viability for a mayoral bid later in the future.
But District 6 really is pretty easy to lay out.
Rep Eddie Holguin is the incumbent and even Republicans like him because he's very fiscally conservative. Though he waited until the last minute to launch his campaign, he is best positioned for re-election. He has two opponents that both live in the area north of the freeway.
Holguin in a matter of a weekend had hundreds of signs put up by his sign guy. He had a campaign kick off event with more than two hundred people in attendance and has a campaign headquarters opened and another in the works.
He has what is needed to win a campaign...the ability to raise money, name ID, a base of support, and volunteers.
Zulema Lazarin - aye pobresita. Its been one misstep after another with her. She has a major problem in that she didn't even know what district she lived in. That shows to some that she's running because there is an agenda that is greater than the needs of the district. Either the domestic partner benefits issue, or personal ego, or whatever...the point is it looks like she's running for the sake of running.
She has zero name ID. She has committed to only spending $500 so that means here name ID won't improve. She will have to do ALOT of walking, but thats when she meets her other big problem. What is she going to tell voters thats different from Holguin? Its hard to imagine her being more fiscally conservative than Holguin and he has a very strong voting record on fiscal issues. That leaves her the religious card, which makes her a one-issue candidate. One-issue candidates don't have a lot going for them and she runs in to her third big problem...the Lower Valley is very Catholic. If Holguin ever did a mailer highlighting her mentor's anti-Catholic teachings on his website, I doubt to many Catholic homes in the valley would be open to hearing her message.
Which leads us to Gerardo Rosiles. I'll just rip off the bandaid on this one. He doesn't speak English very well. That's not too big of an obstacle in the valley, but Rosiles is going to be focused on the area north of the freeway, which he feels is ignored by Holguin. Not exactly the strongest campaign message. He is almost in the same boat as Lazarin. No name ID, no support base, no volunteers. The only advantage he has is that he didn't committ to the $500 limit like Lazarin did.
Holguin will likely win without a run off, with Lazarin and Rosiles splitting the area north of the freeway. I think there might be a spike in turnout in the area north of the freeway this go around and Lazarin and Rosiles will probably be responsible for that.
Bottom line: Holguin wins without a run-off. But he should campaign hard because this race will likely be a barometer to test Holguin's viability for a mayoral bid later in the future.
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