The Chavez Factor

From Burges Candidate Forum

From The Lion Star Blog by Jaime Abeytia

Alright, the follow piece needs to be written. I pride myself in speaking truth to power, so here goes.

State Representative Norma Chavez is not helpful to any Democratic Party candidate unless she is endorsing their opponent.

I'm sorry, but it has to be said.

There is a reason she didn't run for state senator last year when there was all that buzz about who would be running. Remember how she had everyone guess whether or not she was going to run for the open seat? When she eventually made her decision it didn't take long for word to get out as to why she didn't run.

She didn't run for the seat because there was polling done that showed that she had very high negative numbers among likely Democratic voters in the west side. The bottom line is she's not popular and not liked on the west side.

Hell, the fact that she lost to a candidate that has no experience and didn't go anywhere near anything that smelled like an actual issue during the campaign is another indicator that she's not helpful to a campaign.

As I have written and many others have opined, Representative Chavez has often found herself to be her own worst enemy. Sad, but it is what it is.

So why in the hell would she try to “help” Joe Moody when re-election by going anywhere near him during the campaign? I gave her an “A' on a recent report card for staying the hell away from everyone and not popping up anywhere. She must've read it and showed up on the radio with Strelz.

This is right about the point where some of you might need a little extra convincing that she's not helpful to a Democratic Party candidate running for office (to say nothing of a competitive race). So here's how you can tell that she's not an asset to a campaign...Moody's opponent is trying to tie him to Chavez because HE knows she's unpopular. If she was an asset, the opponent would not be TRYING to tie Moody to her!

Hello!!!!!

Its classic campaign strategy. Tie your opponent to something negative - a person, an idea, a group, etc.- anything bad you can tie your opponent to is the play that's made in campaigns. As someone who's actually done that to opponents over her career, you'd think she'd be able to see that play coming.

Go ahead, rewind all the campaign commercials you've ever seen and you'll know what I'm talking about. Its just what you do in a campaign.

Newsflash Norma, you are what Margo's camp is trying to tie Moody to. If you are anywhere on social media, you've probably seen the ad attempting to tie Chavez to Moody. You've seen the mailer on David K's blog and on my own.

Hell, I tried to defuse the situation by reminding voters that Dee Margo once contributed to her campaign!

So exactly what would make her want to show up all of a sudden when she had been doing such a good job at keeping a low profile? In my opinion it has to be ego or pride. Call it what you will, but try to look at it from her perspective. She arguably went from the height of her power in 2008 to being unseated by an inexperienced candidate with no stance on issues and no other message to voters other than Vote for me, I'm not Norma Chavez.

All around her she sees the Democrats calling in the varsity team to come to the aide of State Rep Joe Moody in his race. Democrats from all over the state have been calling in to talk about Joe. Some have come in from out of town to lend a hand. Chairman Pickett took some time to help out. Probably most infuriating for Chavez, State Rep Marisa Marquez even showed up to lend her support in those crucial final hours of the campaign.

From Moody Mega Walk

Its basically been all hands on deck to help out Moody.

All that is, except Representative Chavez.

In fact, sources in the Democratic Party and the Moody campaign have indicated that Representative Chavez was asked to keep her distance and told that she's not helpful to the campaign. From what I gather, most were taken completely by surprise by her radio appearance and were on pins and needles, literally praying she wouldn't mention Moody.

Chavez probably doesn't know what to do with herself during this time. She's used to being at the helm of a grassroots machine organizing GOTV efforts, cracking the whip on volunteers, shouting a stream of expletives at who ever pisses her off at the wrong moment (usually my homegirl Lily Ruiz), and getting a big group of seniors to the polling places. She's probably not used to being held at arm's length during a campaign.

So why does she pop up at the most inopportune moment while the race is in the balance? Part of me thinks its because she really doesn't grasp how unpopular she is and how potentially damaging an association to her could be for Moody. That part of me says that she just wants to be helpful and has good intentions, even if she doesn't grasp how negative her appeal has become.

The other part of me has a different theory. That part of me thinks its all a calculated move to swoop in during the final days of the campaign and offer a contribution to the cause and set herself up to make the argument that she somehow won the race for Moody.

At any rate, she was told/asked/pleaded with/ begged not to intervene but she just can't help herself. From what I gather she tried to quell some of the apprehensions of the the Democrats by saying she was simply going to go on the air to talk about Democratic Party values.

Personally, I don't know how a Craddick D who brought up her opponents sexuality in an embarrassing spectacle has the nerve to preach Democratic Party values, but I guess that's just me.

From what I'm told by people in the party, Chavez made several comments about the fact that I was critical of her being on the air. Well, I have a very good reason. Chavez's endorsement at this point in her career would costs votes for just about anyone in a tight race.

So what's Chavez's motives for making an 11th hour appearance? It could be ego, it could be pride. Perhaps its a desire to have one last swing at the plate, maybe to try to salvage some credibility to set up a run against Naomi Gonzalez in a couple of years, or is she genuinely trying to be helpful?

Who knows?

She's always fancied herself as a talk show host, so maybe she setting up a try for a talk radio program. She's told me on more than one occasion that radio is her “medium”, but after hearing how she imploded on Talk Radio 1150 during her primary election, I'd debate whether its actually her medium.

As a Democrat, I want to see good people get elected. Representative Chavez, whether she's aware of it or not, is not helping. The last time there were that many people worried about Chavez being on the radio and what she might say was her own campaign staff during her last campaign.

I talked about how the best thing they could do would be to hide her cell phone from her and toss it in to the big smoke stack at Asarco so that she couldn't get it, for her own good. There was even people assigned to watch her so that she wouldn't get on talk radio and say something potentially damaging to her campaign.

Seriously, haven't we seen this play out before? Its bad enough that lack of impulse control cost her dearly in the last election, do we have to sit and watch her do it again?

She no longer has most of the people that helped her in her last campaign by her side and El Paso Democrats no longer have that filter.

The stakes are too high in this election.