Moody Trails Margo

The first bit of polling this year was done for the only race in town that matters. It's the only one that matters because its the only one the Republicans have a shot at winning other than possibly hanging on to Haggerty's seat. The rest of the sacrificial lambs are going to get beat soundly, as usual.

Though the poll shows the now-Latino Dee Margo with a slight lead, the poll shows that the race is pretty much a statistical dead heat.

From The Lion Star Blog by Jaime Abeytia

That's really, really, really bad news for Dee Margo. At this point in the race, given the demographics of District 78 (it's the richest, whitest, and most conservative area of town), and the overall sentiment towards Democratic incumbents, I expected Margo to be ahead by at least more than the statistical margin of error.

Especially given the passion and energy of the Tea Party Movement. In fact, Margo, who was ahead most of the way in polling in the last race, should be getting a big boost from the Tea Party Movement. The Tea Party Movement should be his version of the Obama Tsunami, which is what he credited his loss to last go around.

Here's why Dee Margo should be concerned.

He pretty much has everything going in his favor in the race at this point. The only thing not in his favor is the fact that he is facing a candidate that is, with the exception of State Rep Joe Pickett, the most polished and liked member of the El Paso delegation. Let's face it, State Rep Joe Moody isn't going to help Margo along the way, the way State Rep Chavez helped now-Rep-Elect Gonzalez.

Chavez basically did everything she could do to lose the race, Moody just doesn't have a political self-destructive nature.

But with everything else going Margo's way, including a rumored infusion of cash from the Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Margo should be very worried. (You remember the TLR right? They are the Republicans that funded Rep-elect Gonzalez's campaign to the tune of 98%. That's gotta be awkward for Moody knowing that his Democratic colleague padrinos are now funding his opponent.)

Moody hasn't had the big money come in yet.

Moody hasn't had the staffers from the Texas Democratic Party come in yet.

Moody hasn't really started an air war yet.

And the voters haven't had a side-by-side comparison yet.

With a margin as close as it is now, with more than a month to go in the race, the fruition of any one of those factors can flip-flop those numbers.

Contrary to what Margo believes, the reason he lost wasn't Barack Obama. He lost because he underestimated his opponent. He lost because he basically surrendered Canutillo to Moody by not purchasing Spanish language advertising. He lost because they thought they were running in front, when they were actually behind. The polling last time around didn't reach Moody's supporters because they pollsters called landlines.

Margo is making some changes this time around in order try to rectify the mistakes of the past. He's now Latino. Not sure if he's buying Spanish-language media this time, but he did make an internet video highlighting is new-found heritage. To his credit, he has embraced the El Paso Chapter of the Latino National Republican Coalition, which gives him a starting point at reaching out to Latino voters.

Margo underestimated his opponent last time. You get the sense that he looked at Rep Moody as just a kid and not a serious threat. Then when they actually got in to debates, Moody cleaned Margo's clock. Moody is an attorney so debates are his strong suit. Margo always appeared to have an edge to his presentation. You just had this sense that he was always on the edge of losing his temper.

The two really haven't had any side-by-side time in this campaign and if he's smart, Margo will avoid it as much as he can. A big part of earning an undecided voters vote is likeability. Margo, contrary to popular belief is a pretty likeable guy...one on one. But in groups he just seems uncomfortable and awkward. Almost needlessly defensive.

So Margo is clearly doing some things differently. But there are at least two factors that are going to be a huge uphill battle for Margo to overcome.

One is the fact that Margo is has to show why the district shouldn't return Moody to Austin.

That's not an easy task because Moody received accolades, passed meaningful legislation, and basically didn't do anything particularly wrong. Margo's only card to play is guilt by association. He has to run against the Democratic Party brand. There aren't many major issues that affect El Paso that the two would have different approaches toward. In Austin, the delegation generally worked together on El Paso-based issues over the last 20 years.

Margo has to convince voters that the same plays will be called, but he should be the starter instead of Moody. Not an easy thing to do without at compelling issue or ideological difference on the local stuff.

But the biggest worry for Margo should be the Moody ground game. Moody's people have been working the ground game for a while now and its the single biggest defining factor in El Paso elections. Republicans just don't seem to be good at grassroots organizing in this town. The Tea Party Movement sort of fell apart here locally, so there is not really a structure in place to take advantage of the energy of the Tea Party Movement. The LNRC is an organization with some committed people to execute a grassroots operation, but there is no one within the party that actually has the know-how to direct and manage a grassroots operations.

With a credible threat to Governor Perry coming from Bill White, there will be more chess pieces in the field that Moody will be able to benefit from and the Democrats won't be falling asleep at the wheel, which would've benefited the Margo campaign tremendously.

The bottom line here is that Dee Margo shouldn't be cracking open the champagne bottles yet. He still has a long way to go and a lot of things have to go his way in order to take the seat from State Rep Joe Moody.